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Archive for the 'Fed' Category

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Will the Fed let mortgage rates rise?

November 24th, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

I’m seeing more news reports quoting people who think the Federal Reserve should, once again, extend its purchases of securities backed by mortgages issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Fed is supposed to stop by March 31.

The latest comes from the Wall Street Journal quoting Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard:

“I have advocated to keep the asset purchase program open but at a very low level, and wait and see what happens, and as information comes in about the economy we can adjust that program while the federal funds rate remains at zero,” Bullard told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview Sunday ahead of a conference in New York. He added “no decision has been made” about the program’s fate.

Bullard becomes a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which decides interest rates, in 2010.

The Fed has purchased more than $800 billion in mortgage securities and will buy up to $1.25 trillion.

So what do you think?
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Will the Fed stop buying mortgage securities in March?
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Posted in: Fed • Mortgage rates • Mortgage securities | 10 Comments »

Fed to continue supporting mortgage market

November 16th, 2009, 11:50 am by Mathew Padilla

Ben Bernanke, head of the Federal Reserve, said Monday the central bank will continue to support the mortgage market while bank lending remains constrained, reports National Mortgage News. Here’s more:

“We continue to encourage banks to raise additional capital to support their lending. And we continue to facilitate securitizing through our Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) and to support home lending through our purchases of mortgage-backed securities,” the Fed chief told the Economic Club of New York. The Fed has purchased more than $800 billion in agency MBS and it recently extended its MBS purchase program through March 31. (The effort was originally slated to expire at yearend 2009.) The Fed chairman noted that banks have tightened their lending standards more than the central bank had expected. “Unfortunately, reduced bank lending may well slow the recovery,” Mr. Bernanke said. A Fed survey of senior loan officers in October found that 25% of banks had tightened their underwriting standards on prime single-family loans, a slightly higher percentage than reported in the July survey.

Bernanke seems to be saying the Fed is prepared to do more to support home lending.

Maybe it will extend purchases of mortgage securities beyond March 31 — if the Fed does stop buying MBS, mortgage rates are expected to rise at least 25 to 50 basis points (Note: there are 100 basis points in a percentage point).

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Posted in: Bailout Buzz • Fed • Meltdown | 6 Comments »

How about a tax credit for ‘responsible’ homeowners?

November 4th, 2009, 3:50 pm by Mathew Padilla

The Federal Reserve today left a key short-term interest rate unchanged at near zero percent and said again it will wind down purchases of mortgage securities through March. Here’s how some market watchers reacted to the statement:

Jeff Atlman, partner with WestCal Mortgage Corp. in Tustin
“I think it was the right move on the Fed’s part. With inflation being benign and the economy at a crossroad where we are not sure if it can sustain a long-term recovery, they really have limited options. They will continue to purchase mortgage-backed securities and at some point the economy has to show a lifeline of its own. I personally have always said that Washington must realize that our economy will not turn around until jobs return and the housing market turns around. The brains in Washington D.C. are placing laws into effect that are actually hurting consumers (HVCC law, MDIA law etc.). Extending the homebuyer credit would be a positive, but they need to add an incentive to the people who are responsible homeowners and offer them a fixed tax credit as well, such as $6,000 or $6,500.”

Jack Kyser, founding economist of The Kyser Center for Economic Research, LAEDC
“This decision wasn’t unexpected. Our reading of the local economy is that it has hit bottom, but there isn’t much upward momentum yet. Small-to-medium sized businesses complain that they can’t get bank loans. They are also concerned about potential costs imposed by healthcare reform. So it is still tough out there, and keeping rates low is a good decision.”

Jeff Lazerson, a mortgage broker and founder of Mortgage Grader in Laguna Niguel
“We should consider ourselves lucky if inflation pressures force the Fed to raise rates by 4th quarter of 2010. Banksters are being scrooges when it comes to small business lending as well as commercial and residential property lending. We will be stuck in double digit unemployment for some time. The good news here is that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is learning the game of posturing. He didn’t say anything to upset the markets.”

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Posted in: Bailout Buzz • Fed | 37 Comments »

Fed ending Treasury purchases. Will rates rise?

October 29th, 2009, 7:14 am by Mathew Padilla

The Federal Reserve today is buying the last of the $300 billion in government bonds it pledged to purchase to maintain low interest rates and stimulate housing and the economy.

But will mortgage rates go up as a result? Maybe not on loans that can be sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, because the Fed will continue buying mortgage securities issued by those government controlled companies until the end of March.

What’s your vote? (Note: There are 100 basis points in one percent.)
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Will mortgage rates rise now that Fed is ending Treasury purchases?
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Posted in: Fed • Mortgage rates • Polls | 4 Comments »

Fed chief calls for council of regulators

October 1st, 2009, 7:37 am by Mathew Padilla

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke told a congressional panel this morning that a council of U.S. regulators,  rather than the Federal Reserve alone,  should be charged with monitoring threats to the nation’s financial system.

“All federal financial supervisors and regulators — not just the Federal Reserve — should be directed and empowered to take account of risks to the broader financial system as part of their normal oversight responsibilities,” Bernanke said.

The Wall Street Journal has more:

Mr. Bernanke’s view that systemic risk-monitoring should be a group effort could address some fears that the Obama administration’s sweeping plan to rework the nation’s finance rules would give the Fed too much power.

The Obama administration and the Fed have called on Congress to rework financial regulations to better prevent future crises. While the administration wants Congress to approve a bill this year, key proposals that would boost the Fed’s power to regulate the financial system for threats to financial stability have come under fire.

Some market watchers say the Fed should focus more on monetary policy and leave banking regulation to other agencies.

Yet when the Fed cut interest rates after 9/11 the credit bubble expanded, including some very reckless lending. Under Alan Greenspan, the Fed did not act to stop destructive credit behavior even though its loose-money policies were fueling that behavior.

Perhaps the Fed and the regulators should meet in a council format to discuss systemic risks and the impact monetary policy is having on banks and nonbank financial companies.

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U.S. mortgage security purchases extended to March

September 23rd, 2009, 11:35 am by Mathew Padilla

Federal Reserve officials said today they will keep buying mortgage securities and debt of mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac until the end of March 2010 to “gradually slow the pace of these purchases in order to promote a smooth transition in markets.”

Such purchases are widely seen as putting downward pressure on mortgage rates. Some economists previously speculated rates would jump 35 to 50 basis points if the Fed stopped buying mortgage securities abruptly in December, according to its prior plan.

The U.S. central bank plans to purchase as much as $1.25 trillion of mortgage securities backed by Fannie and Freddie, and as much as $200 billion of their debt for company operations.

And the Fed reaffirmed its purchases of $300 billion in Treasuries will finish by October 2009.

The Fed also kept its target for the federal funds rate unchanged at 0 to 1/4 percent.

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Posted in: Fed • Mortgage rates | 4 Comments »

Mortgage rates could jump in January

September 16th, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

The latest from National Mortgage News:

If the Federal Reserve Board suddenly stops purchasing agency mortgage-backed securities on Jan. 1, mortgage rates could jump by 30 basis points to 50 bps, according to Fannie Mae chief economist Doug Duncan. Conventional mortgages with principal balance up to $417,000 would likely rise by 30 bp and rates on higher balance loans of $650,000 to $729,750 could go up by 50 bps, he told MortgageWire. The Fed’s $1.25 trillion MBS purchase program is slated to expire Dec. 31. But Mr. Duncan expects the Fed will extend and slowly wind down its purchases of Fannie, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae MBS. “Thus, incremental winding down of the Fed’s program may not be too disruptive of rates and spreads,” Mr. Duncan said in his August economic forecast. The Fed is expected to decide how it will wind down the MBS purchase program at the Sept. 22-23 Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

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Posted in: Bailout Buzz • Fed • Mortgage rates • Mortgage securities | 11 Comments »

Banking problems are bigger today than in 2007, economist says

September 14th, 2009, 7:22 am by Mathew Padilla

Bloomberg recently quoted Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize-winning economist, as saying the U.S. has failed to fix the underlying problems of its banking system.

“In the U.S. and many other countries, the too-big-to-fail banks have become even bigger,” Stiglitz said in an interview in Paris. “The problems are worse than they were in 2007 before the crisis.”

Here’s more from Bloomberg:

Stiglitz’s views echo those of former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker, who has advised President Barack Obama’s administration to curtail the size of banks, and Bank of Israel Governor Stanley Fischer, who suggested last month that governments may want to discourage financial institutions from growing “excessively.”

A year after the demise of Lehman forced the Treasury Department to spend billions to shore up the financial system, Bank of America Corp.’s assets have grown and Citigroup Inc. remains intact. In the U.K., Lloyds Banking Group Plc, 43 percent owned by the government, has taken over the activities of HBOS Plc, and in France BNP Paribas SA now owns the Belgian and Luxembourg banking assets of insurer Fortis.

While Obama wants to name some banks as “systemically important” and subject them to stricter oversight, his plan wouldn’t force them to shrink or simplify their structure.

…

“It’s an outrage,” especially “in the U.S. where we poured so much money into the banks,” Stiglitz said. “The administration seems very reluctant to do what is necessary. Yes they’ll do something, the question is: Will they do as much as required?”

…

Stiglitz, former chief economist at the World Bank and member of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said the world economy is “far from being out of the woods” even if it has pulled back from the precipice it teetered on after the collapse of Lehman.

“We’re going into an extended period of weak economy, of economic malaise,” Stiglitz said. The U.S. will “grow but not enough to offset the increase in the population,” he said, adding that “if workers do not have income, it’s very hard to see how the U.S. will generate the demand that the world economy needs.”

The Federal Reserve faces a “quandary” in ending its monetary stimulus programs because doing so may drive up the cost of borrowing for the U.S. government, he said.

“The question then is who is going to finance the U.S. government,” Stiglitz said.

Today President Barack Obama is giving a speech meant to revive financial regulatory reform.

On Sept. 10, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn gave a speech in which he said government officials have mostly kept to the advice of 19th Century journalist and intellectual Walter Bagehot, who said a central bank should act during a financial panic by lending to sound banks, against good collateral and charging interest higher than market rates to discourage long-term borrowing from the government. Kohn said (bold added):

The liquidity measures we took during the financial crisis, although unprecedented in their details, were generally consistent with Bagehot’s principles and aimed at short-circuiting these feedback loops. The Federal Reserve lends only against collateral that meets specific quality requirements, and it applies haircuts where appropriate. Beyond the collateral, in many cases we also have recourse to the borrowing institution for repayment. In the case of the TALF, we are backstopped by the Treasury. In addition, the terms and conditions of most of our facilities are designed to be unattractive under normal market conditions, thus preserving borrowers’ incentives to obtain funds in the market when markets are operating normally. Apart from a very small number of exceptions involving systemically important institutions, such features have limited the extent to which the Federal Reserve has taken on credit risk, and the overall credit risk involved in our lending during the crisis has been small.

Did he just admit the government has kept Zombie banks alive because they are too big to fail?

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Posted in: Bailout Buzz • Bank failures • Fed • Regulation | 7 Comments »

Fed should buy mortgage securities into 2010

September 1st, 2009, 12:10 pm by Mathew Padilla

At least one Wall Street expert wants the Federal Reserve to buy fewer mortgage-backed securities now and extend the program into next year. The Fed’s buying of MBS likely is helping to keep mortgage rates low, as is its purchases of Treasuries.

Here’s more from National Mortgage News:

Credit Suisse mortgage strategist Mahesh Swaminathan said the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is purchasing Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae MBS at a rate of $25 billion a week. “They are really racing,” said Mr. Swaminathan. “At this pace they will be done with their purchase program by yearend. I don’t think that is desirable,” he added. Recent statements by a couple of Federal Reserve Bank presidents indicate the $1.25 trillion MBS purchase program may be allowed to expire at the end of December. The New York Fed has already purchased $790 billion of agency MBS. If they cut their weekly purchases by 50% or more, the Credit Suisse strategist said, the purchase program could be extended into the first and second quarters of 2010. “It is much better to slow things down now and telegraph that they are ready to support the market for some more time,” he said.

The Fed has previously said it will wind down Treasury purchases and finish by October.

Obviously, this all depends on the strength of credit markets, the economy and housing.

More on the Fed…

Posted in: Bailout Buzz • Fed | 7 Comments »

Fed says disclosing emergency loans will hurt banks

August 27th, 2009, 9:45 am by Mathew Padilla

The Federal Reserve is appealing a judge’s ruling that it disclose the names of banks that got emergency loans, and yesterday it asked the judge to allow it to withhold names during the appeal process. The Fed argued identifying the financial institutions would hurt them and make an appeal moot. Here’s more from Bloomberg:

The Fed’s board of governors asked Manhattan Chief U.S. District Judge Loretta Preska to delay enforcement of her Aug. 24 decision that the identities of borrowers in 11 lending programs must be made public by Aug. 31. The central bank wants Preska to stay her order until the U.S. Court of Appeals in New York can hear the case.

“The immediate release of these documents will destroy the board’s claims of exemption and right of appellate review,” the motion said. “The institutions whose names and information would be disclosed will also suffer irreparable harm.”

The Fed’s “ability to effectively manage the current, and any future, financial crisis” would be impaired, according to the motion. It said “significant harms” could befall the U.S. economy as well.

The central bank didn’t say when it would file its appeal.

Fed lawyer Kit Wheatley told Preska in a conference call today that she did not know how long it would take for the Fed board to search the New York Fed for records.

“We really don’t know what’s in New York,” Wheatley said. “We don’t control the system of record-keeping in New York.”

This is an interesting case. I’d like to see the names disclosed — we are talking about taxpayer money.

But the Fed’s fears are legitimate ones. The FDIC is already struggling with the number of banks going bad, and the financial system is still fragile. In fact, it can’t function without government support.

By the way, it was Bloomberg’s parent company that sued the Fed on Nov. 7 under the Freedom of Information Act on behalf of Bloomberg’s news unit.

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Posted in: Bad debt • Bailout Buzz • Bank failures • Fed | 11 Comments »

Three wishes for Bernanke’s second term

August 25th, 2009, 12:01 pm by Mathew Padilla

(Update II: Consumer advocate Kevin Stein added.)

I asked housing watchers what three wishes they have for Ben Bernanke’s second term as head of the Federal Reserve, assuming he’s approved by the Senate.

Jack Kyser, founding economist of The Kyser Center for Economic Research in Los Angeles
“1.That no more major financial institutions get in to trouble.
2.That he can successfully pull liquidity out of the markets as the economy recovers, to keep inflation under control.
3. That he can help craft thoughtful regulation of the nation’s financial system.

And I am very happy that he got re-appointed.”

Michael Pento, chief economist of Huntington Beach-based Delta Global Advisors
“1. He keeps money supply growth in check. Meaning it never grows faster than labor force + productivity growth
2. He makes sure financial institutions don’t become over-leveraged again
3. He lobbies the White House in an attempt to stop the national debt from increasing.

None of these wishes have a chance of coming to fruition.”

Jeff Altman, partner with loan brokerage WestCal Mortgage Corp. in Orange
“1. That he would listen to the National Association of Mortgage Brokers and have an open line of communication with them.
2. The Federal reserve keeps a BIG EYE on inflation in the next 12-18 months.
3. He speaks up and is not afraid to tell the Obama administration that ENOUGH IS ENOUGH regarding spending and that to continue spending foolishly will put us in a double-dip recession.”

Walter Hahn, real estate economist in Irvine
“1. Keep doing what he has been doing, which is nursing the fragile financial system along so it doesn’t collapse.

2. More of 1.

3. At the right time start soaking up the trillions of cash the Fed has pumped into the financial system so that the cash doesn’t set off a surge in inflation.”

Kevin Stein, associate director of consumer group California Reinvestment Coalition in San Francisco
“1. Strengthen anti-predatory mortgage lending regulations which could have prevented the current crisis and which could prevent a future one. This would include deeming as unfair and deceptive the following practices and products: prepayment penalties, yield spread premiums, and negotiating mortgages in non English languages without providing translated documents to the borrower.

2. Expand reporting requirements under Regs B and C so that loss mitigation/loan modification outcomes are reported under Reg C (in essence, to expand HMDA data reporting), and so that race and ethnicity data of borrowers is collected under Reg C for loan modifications and under Reg B for small business loans. This will help shed light on how well financial institutions are doing helping families and neighborhoods of color to avoid foreclosure and to develop economically.

3. Publicly support federal legislative proposals to prevent foreclosures, protect consumers and promote reinvestment, through: Bankruptcy cramdown legislation; the development of the President’s proposed Consumer Financial Protection Agency (HR3126); and the proposal for Modernizing the Community Reinvestment Act (HR1479).”

What are your wishes for Bernanke?

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Low rates for a long time?

August 25th, 2009, 8:19 am by Mathew Padilla

The news today that President Barack Obama is reappointing Fed Chief Ben Bernanke likely means the Fed will continue to pump money into the economy through 2010.

The Fed previously said it would stop buying Treasuries by the end of October, and it is scheduled to stop buying mortgage securities in December. But it extended TALF (support of auto and student loans, credit cards, business equipment and loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration) through March and extended support of commercial mortgage backed securities to June.

Those are all extraordinary programs meant to tackle the credit meltdown. As for the more traditional tinkering with the federal funds rate that banks lend each other overnight, St Louis Fed President James Bullard said in a recent interview that financial markets have not fully understood that the central bank’s pledge to keep interest rates exceptionally low for an extended period means they will stay low beyond when officials normally would raise them.

“I don’t think markets have really digested what that means,” Bullard is quoted by Reuters. Bullard will be a voting member of the Fed’s interest rate setting panel next year.

Bernanke’s reappointment must be approved by the Senate.

More Fed watch...

Posted in: Bailout Buzz • Fed | 7 Comments »

Fed triples support of commercial lending

August 22nd, 2009, 12:00 pm by Mathew Padilla

The latest from National Mortgage News:

The Federal Reserve accepted $2.3 billion in investor requests for financing to purchase legacy commercial mortgage-backed securities at the second TALF subscription, up from $669 million at the first subscription in July. The Fed’s Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility also provides financing for newly issued CMBS but there were no takers at the Thursday (Aug. 24) subscription. It is understood that several real estate investment trusts are gearing up to sell CMBS and may participate in the September TALF subscription. At the urging of commercial real estate interests, the Federal Reserve Board recently extended the CMBS TALF program until March 31 for legacy bonds and June 30 for newly issued bonds. The TALF program was due to expire at yearend.

TALF lives.

Some economists expect 2010 to be the year of modest recovery. But the Feds have to extract themselves from supporting most lending in this country and raise interest rates.  Should be another interesting year.

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Posted in: Bailout Buzz • Commercial lending • Fed • Meltdown • | 11 Comments »

Fed extends lending support through March

August 17th, 2009, 7:33 am by Mathew Padilla

The Federal Reserve has extended the TALF program, which is intended to spur lending to consumers and small businesses at lower rates. But the Fed will not expand the types of loans made, reports the Associated Press reports. Here’s more:

The Fed on Monday said it extended its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility through March 31 for most of the types of loans it makes. The program was scheduled to end on Dec. 31.

The TALF started in March and figures prominently in efforts by the Fed and the Obama administration to ease credit, stabilize the financial system and help end the recession. Under the program, investors use the funds to buy securities backed by auto and student loans, credit cards, business equipment and loans guaranteed by the Small Business Administration.

The program for commercial mortgage-backed securities was extended through June 30 because issuing new securities in that area “can take a significant amount of time to arrange,” according to a joint news release from the Fed and the Treasury Department.

The broader TALF program had gotten off to a lethargic start, hobbled by rule changes, investor worries about financial privacy and fears that participants might become ensnared in an anti-bailout backlash from the public and Congress.

The program has the potential to generate up to $1 trillion in lending for households and businesses, according to the government. Spurring such lending is vital to turning around the economy.

The Fed and Treasury on Monday said they were prepared to reconsider this decision if financial or economic developments conditions indicate that such an expansion would still be warranted. However, the government believes the financial system is beginning to stabilize after being hit last fall by the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

“Conditions in financial markets have improved considerably in recent months,” the Fed and Treasury said in their statement. “Nonetheless, the markets for asset-backed securities backed by consumer and business loans and for commercial mortgage-backed securities are still impaired and seem likely to remain so for some time.”

The economic free fall appears over, but it will be difficult for the government to extract itself from lending support programs. The TALF is but one — the much bigger fish is housing, and what to do with Fannie, Freddie and FHA.

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Posted in: Bailout Buzz • Fed | 7 Comments »

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