Orange County Register

There were more foreclosures and short sales on the market last Thursday in Orange County than two weeks earlier — not a comforting trend heading into the holidays.

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The chart from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo shows that while foreclosures and short sales (when a bank agrees to accept less than debt owed on a property) have declined over much of this year, over the past month they have been flat or increasing slightly.

It’s hard to say if this trend will continue. I expect at least a modest increase in short sales and possibly foreclosures as borrowers fail to get loan modifications under the Obama administration’s program. The most recent data about Making Home Affordable has shown a slight increase in folks getting help, but most people 60 days past due on their mortgage and eligible are not even in trial modifications and it’s unclear how many permanent modifications have taken place.

Back to Thomas, he notes in Orange County:

• “There are currently only 339 foreclosures in all of Orange County (as actively listed for sale), an increase of 25 in the past two weeks.
• Foreclosures only represent 4% of the active listing market.
• Foreclosures continue to be exceptionally HOT and are, on average, selling for 3% above their asking prices.
• There are currently 2,123 short sales on the active market, an increase of 48 in the past two weeks. Short sales currently represent 28% of the active listing inventory.”

More from this blog…

• Investors up bets on foreclosures
• Feds seize San Clemente bank that got taxpayer money
• FHA short on cash
• Reader considers buying retirement home early
• These homes are about to be foreclosed
• Will ‘risk retention’ prevent another credit fiasco?
• Many trial, few permanent loan deals
• Foreclosure notices hit record 8,800
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Aliso Viejo broker Steve Thomas of Altera Real Estate reports that it would take just 21 days to sell all the bank-owned homes in Orange County based on the current sales pace. And competition to buy those homes is so stiff that accepted offers are averaging 3% over the asking price, he said.

Fewer than one in 20 of the county’s 7,749 listings on Thursdays were repossessed homes taken by banks through foreclosure.

But short sales — homes selling for less than their debts — accounted for more than one in four O.C. listings, “a major player in today’s marketplace,” Thomas said. The chart below shows the long-term trend:

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In addition, Thomas reports:

• There are currently only 314 foreclosed homes for sale in all of Orange County, a decrease of eight in the past two weeks.
• There are currently 2,075 short sales on the market, a decrease of just one in the past two weeks. Short sales currently represent 27 percent of the listings.
• The expected market time for short sales — the theoretical time to sell all the listings at the current sales pace — is 56 days, vs. nearly seven months a year ago.
• Overall, the total number of distressed listings — foreclosures and short sales — was 2,389, or 30.8 percent of the total number of homes for sale.
• That’s down just nine homes from two weeks ago, but way down from a year ago. At the end of October 2008, there were 5,801 distressed homes on the market, accounting for 43.8 percent of the total listings.

Here’s a look at various slices of the O.C. market as of last Thursday: total listings; distressed listings; and percentage of all listings that are distressed … Read the rest of this entry »

Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo reports that the number of O.C. distressed properties (homes listed by agents as foreclosures or short sales) increased last week for the first time since November 2008. The chart below shows the long-term trend:

More facts:

• The number of foreclosures and short sales increased by 52, now totaling 2,398, returning to early September 2009 numbers.
• 30.3% of the active inventory is distressed compared to 42.9% last year.
• There are currently 2,076 short sales on the active market, and they represent 26% of the active listing inventory.
• Yet there are currently only 322 foreclosures for sale in all of Orange County, an increase of two in the past two weeks.
• Foreclosures represent just 4% of the active listing market.

“Foreclosures are hot and are, on average, selling for 4% above their asking prices,” Thomas writes.

For overall sales and pricing data, check out Lansner on Real Estate.

Here’s a look at various slices of the O.C. market as of last Thursday: total inventory listings; distressed property listings; and the share distressed listings have of total inventory supply on a percentage basis in each niche …

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• U.K. regulator to ban stated-income mortgages
• Biggest mortgage insurer reports loss, 14% dud loans
• Buy now, refinance later at your own risk
• AG Brown to enforce ban on advance fees for mortgage aid
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Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo reports that the number of O.C. distressed properties (homes listed by agents as foreclosures or short sales) was 2,346 last week, -38 vs. two weeks earlier or a -1.6% change.

Thomas also notes:

• There are currently 320 foreclosures for sale in all of Orange County, a drop of 14 in the past two weeks.
• Foreclosures only represent 4% of the active listing market. That’s not including foreclosures in escrow or held by banks but not yet listed for sale. As I have posted several times, banks are holding a lot of bad loans on their books.
• Foreclosures are selling for 3% above their asking prices.
• The distressed inventory has dropped 44% from its peak, reached in August of 2008.
• As a percent of all listed homes for sale, distressed properties were 29.6% of the market last week, unchanged from a week earlier.

Lansner on Real Estate reports on an overall drop in houses for sale.

Here’s a look at various slices of the O.C. market as of last Thursday: total inventory listings; distressed property listings; and the share distressed listings have of total inventory supply on a percentage basis in each niche …

More from this blog on distressed properties…

• These homes are about to be foreclosed
• Lenders ‘forgive’ homeowner debt more often
• Banks hold record delinquent mortgages
• Delinquencies jump at U.S. mortgage company
• Foreclosure filings drop, but backlog grows
• These homes are about to be foreclosed
• These City of Orange homes are about to be repo’d
• Banks may lose exemptions to foreclosure moratorium

(Update: Thomas explains list price on foreclosures.)

Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo reports that the number of O.C. distressed properties (homes listed by agents as foreclosures or short sales) was 2,384 last week, -132 vs. two weeks earlier or a -5.2% change.

“The average sale to list price ratio for foreclosures over the past three months is 103%,” Thomas said. “That means that, on average, foreclosures are selling for 3% above the list price. The sale to list price ratio for short sales and equity sellers is 98%. And, if there weren’t so many appraisal issues, those numbers would be even higher. Buyers in the lower ranges should not expect to offer that much less than the asking price.”

Of course, list prices for some foreclosures might be lower than comparable properties nearby to attract buyers.

Also, I asked Thomas about foreclosures for which the list price has been dropped; does he use the final list price? Here’s what he wrote back in an email: “It is the sales to ‘last’ list price. Most foreclosures are not dropping their list price, though.” (Updated: 9:20 a.m.)

More points from the twice monthly report:

• “With pressure from the federal government, lenders are moving more and more towards short sales. We can expect within the coming weeks for the Obama administration to announce something along these lines. Currently most short sales, where home owners owe more than their homes are worth, take a very long time to obtain lender approval, delaying the ultimate close of escrow. Lenders are creating procedures to speed up the process. Short sales are a better route than foreclosures because they are in much better condition and save the lenders a lot on repairing and carrying costs. There are currently 2,050 short sales on the market with an expected market time of 1.58 months, much different than just one year ago when there were 4,422 short sales with an expected market time of 6.2 months.”
• “There are currently more distressed sales within the upper ranges. Last year only 6.5% of all distressed properties were above $750,000. Today, 11.4% of all distressed properties are above that mark. The upper ranges are not immune to distressed sales. More and more prime borrowers are having trouble paying their mortgages. A contributing factor to this trend is the increase in unemployment and the falling of property values where more and more borrowers are upside down in their homes.”
• As a percent of all listed homes for sale, distressed properties were 29.6% of the market last week vs. 30.1% two weeks earlier.
• Since Dec. 27, the number of distressed homes on the market has dropped 56% while the non-distressed supply is 32% lower.

Here’s a look at various slices of the O.C. market as of last Thursday: total inventory listings; distressed property listings; and the share distressed listings have of total inventory supply on a percentage basis in each niche …

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• Changes coming to troubled FHA program
• Reader considers defaulting to get lender’s attention
• Feds target Irvine loan-aid firm
• These homes are about to be foreclosed
• Goldman sees 10-year yields falling to 3%
• Mortgage rates could jump in January
• O.C. foreclosures tumble for second month
• Latest foreclosure rescue plan … a state-sponsored monitor