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Archive for the 'Defaults & Foreclosures' Category

Housing threat looms in South County

November 23rd, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

Banks started the foreclosure process on hundreds of homeowners in South Orange County in the third quarter of this year, in a sign cities there could see more actual foreclosures in the months ahead.

Bank owned signThe ZIP with the highest concentration of homeowners in distress was 92694 in Ladera Ranch — lenders filed 167 notices of default (NOD) during the three months ending in September, down a tad from the second quarter but up 69% from a year ago, reports MDA DataQuick.

The total of 167 NODs equates to 25 default notices per 1,000 homes, the highest such ratio in the county. By that measure, Ladera Ranch saw a greater concentration of housing stress than heavily impacted areas further north, including Santa Ana and Anaheim. Three ZIPs in Santa Ana had a ratio of 19 notices per 1,000 homes.

Rounding out the top five was Rancho Santa Margarita’s 92688, another South County ZIP, with a ratio of 17 default notices per 1,000. Banks filed 228 NODs in that ZIP, up 9% from Q2 and 84% from a year earlier.

Here’s a table showing NODs in Q3 by ZIP, with percentage gain from a year ago, and NODs per 1,000 homes.

ZIP CITY NODs Q3 Yvs.Y NOD/1,000H
92694 Ladera Ranch 167 68.7% 25
92703 Santa Ana 142 -9.0% 19
92701 Santa Ana 107 -31.0% 19
92707 Santa Ana 183 -6.6% 19
92688 Rancho Santa Margarita 228 83.9% 17
92704 Santa Ana 216 -0.9% 16
92801 Anaheim 119 12.3% 16
92675 San Juan Capistrano 164 141.2% 16
92804 Anaheim 213 6.0% 16
92843 Garden Grove 108 2.9% 16
92805 Anaheim 137 -10.5% 15
92841 Garden Grove 88 39.7% 14
92780 Tustin 140 48.9% 14
92655 Midway City 18 125.0% 14
92844 Garden Grove 58 18.4% 14
92610 Foothill Ranch 59 31.1% 14
92706 Santa Ana 100 23.5% 13
92656 Aliso Viejo 198 45.6% 13
92806 Anaheim 75 4.2% 13
90621 Buena Park 69 15.0% 13
92679 Trabuco/Coto 148 124.2% 13
92840 Garden Grove 135 -3.6% 13
90680 Stanton 64 -8.6% 13
92653 Laguna Hills 115 42.0% 13
92868 Orange 47 51.6% 13
92782 Tustin 91 106.8% 12
92802 Anaheim 65 -11.0% 12
92808 Anaheim 80 142.4% 12
92833 Fullerton 150 28.2% 12
90631 La Habra 186 59.0% 11
92832 Fullerton 44 37.5% 11
92673 San Clemente 108 120.4% 11
92676 Silverado 10 400.0% 11
92630 Lake Forest 192 8.5% 11
92677 Laguna Niguel 239 51.3% 11
92657 Newport Coast 46 283.3% 10
92683 Westminster 178 16.3% 10
92691 Mission Viejo 158 38.6% 10
90620 Buena Park 112 3.7% 10
92823 Brea 11 37.5% 10
92627 Costa Mesa 90 12.5% 9
92626 Costa Mesa 95 39.7% 9
92869 Orange 100 31.6% 9
92603 Irvine 56 107.4% 9
92861 Villa Park 18 63.6% 9
92602 Irvine 43 38.7% 9
92831 Fullerton 57 46.2% 8
92867 Orange 87 17.6% 8
92705 Santa Ana 94 10.6% 8
92870 Placentia 110 37.5% 8
92865 Orange 41 -4.7% 8
92887 Yorba Linda 54 42.1% 8
92692 Mission Viejo 137 93.0% 8
92807 Anaheim 96 18.5% 8
92620 Irvine 86 36.5% 8
92612 Irvine 49 28.9% 8
92629 Dana Point 79 172.4% 8
92835 Fullerton 56 86.7% 8
92648 Huntington Beach 91 68.5% 8
92886 Yorba Linda 109 60.3% 7
92606 Irvine 32 113.3% 7
92821 Brea 63 12.5% 7
92647 Huntington Beach 84 121.1% 7
92614 Irvine 47 104.3% 7
92604 Irvine 56 93.1% 7
92663 Newport Beach 43 126.3% 7
92618 Irvine 22 -4.3% 7
92866 Orange 17 88.9% 6
92708 Fountain Valley 103 56.1% 6
92845 Garden Grove 34 126.7% 6
92660 Newport Beach 62 169.6% 6
92624 Dana Point 25 257.1% 6
90630 Cypress 75 31.6% 6
90623 La Palma 23 4.5% 6
92672 San Clemente 84 50.0% 5
92651 Laguna Beach 58 87.1% 5
92646 Huntington Beach 93 29.2% 5
92649 Huntington Beach 48 20.0% 5
90720 Los Alamitos 23 43.8% 4
92625 Corona del Mar 18 157.1% 4
90740 Seal Beach 16 -15.8% 3
92662 Newport Beach 2 0.0% 3
92637 Laguna Woods 20 42.9% 3
92661 Newport Beach 4 n/a 2

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Delinquencies could pull down home prices

November 21st, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported this week nationwide home loan delinquencies hit 9.6% at the end of September. Also, 4.5% of loans are in some stage of foreclosure — so a total of 14% of loans are at least one payment late.

The MBA expects foreclosures to peak in 2011.

The New York Times reported on rising delinquencies and few loan modifications becoming permanent so far under the Obama administration’s Making Home Affordable program. Here’s a quote from the story:

“I’ve been pretty bearish on this big ugly pig stuck in the python and this cements my view that home prices are going back down,” said the housing consultant Ivy Zelman.

We’ll see soon enough.

More from this blog…

These homes are about to be foreclosed

November 19th, 2009, 12:00 pm by Marilyn Kalfus, real estate reporter

First, in foreclosure news this week:

Banks start foreclosure on 2,100 mortgages

Every week, homes throughout Orange County go to foreclosure auctions. The owners can be millions of dollars in debt, foreclosedhomesmediumor owe just a few thousand.

Often these homes revert to the lenders, who eventually put them back on the market. Sometimes the homes are bought by investors and resold.

Foreclosures affect more than the homeowners involved. They can impact entire neighborhoods. At the very least, they can affect nearby home sales.

All of these homes and addresses have been listed in the public notices, as required by law.

See Aliso Viejo HERE.

See Coto de Caza HERE.

Huntington Beach HERE.

See Irvine HERE.

See Laguna Niguel HERE.

See Laguna Woods HERE.

NEW! See Orange foreclosures HERE.

San Clemente HERE.

See Yorba Linda HERE.

To read about how these auctions work, CLICK HERE.

Trustee, trustor … what’s the difference? To see foreclosure terms and definitions CLICK HERE.

Top tips for buying investment properties CLICK HERE.

Note: There are foreclosures in other Orange County cities but so far we haven’t had enough available writers to regularly compile foreclosure information from them. We hope to add more cities in the future.

For a map with a partial list of other real estate listings around Orange County, click here

More from this blog…

Banks start foreclosure on 2,100 mortgages

November 17th, 2009, 1:50 pm by Mathew Padilla

DataQuick reports lenders filed 2,152 notices of default in Orange County in October, down 3.2 percent from September but up 132.6 percent from a year ago.

Default notices fell for the third straight month, which could reflect borrowers getting more affordable terms to their loans under the Obama administration’s loan modification program.

Making Home Affordable is reaching more people, but it is unclear how many are getting permanent loan modifications. The administration won’t release figures on completed modifications until December. And those getting temporary modifications account for just 20 percent of all eligible loans at least two months past due.

Default notices initiate the foreclosure process and are typically filed after a borrower misses three or more monthly payments.

Banks foreclosed on 763 houses and condos last month, up 7.6 percent from the prior month and 3.5 percent from a year ago. Foreclosures fell for the previous three months, so it is too early to say if the October rise indicates a trend.

But if many borrowers don’t get permanent loan modifications, foreclosures will likely increase in the months ahead.

A separate report from a real estate agent showed a recent uptick in foreclosures and short sales listed for sale. Short sales are when a bank agrees to accept less than debt owed on a property. It’s also possible that short sales will increase, if modifications fail.

For sales and pricing information, check out Lansner on Real Estate.

The following table shows defaults and foreclosures (Forec.) going back to 2007:

Year 2009 2008 2007
Month Defaults Forec. Defaults Forec. Defaults Forec.
January 2,200 835 2,352 802 847 152
February 2,742 770 2,254 733 811 164
March 3,485 541 2,476 698 986 204
April 2,947 482 2,598 898 855 234
May 2,590 591 2,468 1,131 1,021 276
June 2,724 833 2,498 1,213 1,108 311
July 2,968 806 2,337 1,362 1,167 367
August 2,246 723 2,484 1,441 1,476 469
September 2,222 709 871 1,194 1,239 444
October 2,152 763 925 737 1,448 530
November 1,205 633 933 364
December 2,351 718 1,895 644
TOTAL 26,276 7,053 24,819 11,560 13,786 4,159

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More foreclosures and short sales hit the market

November 16th, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

There were more foreclosures and short sales on the market last Thursday in Orange County than two weeks earlier — not a comforting trend heading into the holidays.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

The chart from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo shows that while foreclosures and short sales (when a bank agrees to accept less than debt owed on a property) have declined over much of this year, over the past month they have been flat or increasing slightly.

It’s hard to say if this trend will continue. I expect at least a modest increase in short sales and possibly foreclosures as borrowers fail to get loan modifications under the Obama administration’s program. The most recent data about Making Home Affordable has shown a slight increase in folks getting help, but most people 60 days past due on their mortgage and eligible are not even in trial modifications and it’s unclear how many permanent modifications have taken place.

Back to Thomas, he notes in Orange County:

  • “There are currently only 339 foreclosures in all of Orange County (as actively listed for sale), an increase of 25 in the past two weeks.
  • Foreclosures only represent 4% of the active listing market.
  • Foreclosures continue to be exceptionally HOT and are, on average, selling for 3% above their asking prices.
  • There are currently 2,123 short sales on the active market, an increase of 48 in the past two weeks. Short sales currently represent 28% of the active listing inventory.”

More from this blog…

Investors up bets on foreclosures

November 14th, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

Is another housing bubble inflating?

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

ForeclosureRadar.com reports investors bought 337 houses and condos at foreclosure auctions, known as trustee’s sales, in Orange County last month, up 21% from September and 157% from a year earlier.

Properties sold to investors are the blue columns in the chart (click for larger image).  It’s clear from the chart that this year investors have been increasing their auction purchases. (The red columns are properties that became real estate owned, REO).

ForeclosureRadar reports that statewide the trend is the same; investors are competing more vigorously for auctioned properties:

Many auction investors are gaining confidence that they can make money reselling homes purchased on the court house steps, given the limited supply of homes available on the MLS and continued demand stimulus in the form of tax credits and low interest rates.

Maybe someone should tell investors about the big backlog in delinquent loans.

More from this blog…

These homes are about to be foreclosed

November 12th, 2009, 12:00 pm by Marilyn Kalfus, real estate reporter

First, in foreclosure news this week:

Foreclosure notices hit record 8,800

Every week, homes throughout Orange County go to foreclosure auctions. The owners can be millions of dollars in debt, foreclosedhomesmediumor owe just a few thousand.

Often these homes revert to the lenders, who eventually put them back on the market. Sometimes the homes are bought by investors and resold.

Foreclosures affect more than the homeowners involved. They can impact entire neighborhoods. At the very least, they can affect nearby home sales.

All of these homes and addresses have been listed in the public notices, as required by law.

See Aliso Viejo HERE.

See Huntington Beach HERE.

See Irvine HERE.

See Ladera Ranch HERE.

See Laguna Beach HERE.

See Laguna Niguel HERE.

See Laguna Woods HERE.

To read about how these auctions work, CLICK HERE.

Trustee, trustor … what’s the difference? To see foreclosure terms and definitions CLICK HERE.

Top tips for buying investment properties CLICK HERE.

Note: There are foreclosures in other Orange County cities — including Orange and Anaheim — but so far we haven’t had enough available writers to regularly compile foreclosure information from them. We hope to add more cities in the future. 

 More from this blog ….

 

For a map of real estate listings and foreclosures, click here

Many trial, few permanent loan deals

November 11th, 2009, 5:43 pm by Mathew Padilla

The Obama administration reported this week that 1-in-5 borrowers who are two months late on their mortgage and are eligible for aid are getting a deal from their lender. That’s an improvement from earlier in the year and works out to 650,000 borrowers getting help.

However, many of those modifications are still in the trial phase, reports the Wall Street Journal. The paper says the administration won’t release figures on completed modifications until December, “but so far it appears that very few trial modifications are becoming permanent, often because of a lack of documentation.”

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Treasury’s chart (click for larger version)  shows Saxon Mortgage, a unit of Morgan Stanley, leads the pack with 44% of eligible loans 60-days late in some type of modification. But according to the Journal, 26,000 of the 39,000 borrowers in the program have made more than three trial payments, and only 500 have received completed modifications.

In another example, the Journal reports J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. said last week more than 92,000 of its customers have made at least three trial payments, but just 26% of them had submitted all the required documents for a permanent fix.

There’s a lot riding on this program. My previous post showed a huge backlog of delinquent loans in Orange County alone.

You can download Treasury’s report on Making Home Affordable.

I end with this quote from the Journal:

“It’s a fiasco in the making,” said Alan White, an assistant professor at Valparaiso University in Indiana, citing preliminary information about low numbers of permanent modifications and complaints from attorneys and housing counselors.

“The good news is you’ve gotten all these homeowners in from the cold and on these temporary modifications,” Mr. White said. “The bad news is we are stumbling in getting all these people…all the way” to keeping their homes.

More from this blog…

Foreclosure notices hit record 8,800

November 11th, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

ForeclosureRadar.com reports that outstanding foreclosure auction notices in Orange County rose to 8,895 at the end of September, the highest in this housing downturn and probably the highest ever.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

September’s total was up 5% from August and 90% from a year ago. The chart (click for larger image)  shows outstanding auction notices going back to January 2007. Auction notices, also known as notices of trustee’s sale, are a warning that a property will be offered for sale, usually at a local courthouse.

ForeclosureRadar calculates outstanding auction notices by adding up notices issued and subtracting those that have been canceled or have completed foreclosure. Auction notices are usually good for up to a year.

Sean O’Toole, president and founder of ForeclosureRadar, said in past downturns auction notices did not stack up nearly as much.

But this time around lenders face intense political pressure not to foreclose. O’Toole said If foreclosures do rise again, politicians will stop them, possibly granting bankruptcy judges the power to slash outstanding debt on properties to current market value.

Lenders know this and are responding by keeping a lid on foreclosures, he said. (I’ll add that readers of this blog have argued lenders are intentionally delaying foreclosure to avoid flooding markets or recognizing losses on their balance sheets.)

So lenders are using foreclosure filings as a threat to get borrowers to either start paying again or complete their loan workout paperwork in a timely manner, O’Toole said.

O’Toole also expects to see more alternatives to foreclosure, such as short sales, or when a bank agrees to accept less than debt owed.

“With the lack of inventory and REOs, Realtors will work harder to find inventory,” O’Toole said. “I think short sales will be a big part of the 2010 story.”

With all the government tinkering, including keeping interest rates low and giving homebuyers a tax credit O’Toole anticipates a modest market rebound. But he says it will be artificial with another correction right behind.

“I don’t know that blowing a little (housing) bubble right now is in the public’s best interest,” O’Toole.

ForeclosureRadar isn’t the only one noting a backlog of delinquent loans.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

Here again is the chart (click for larger image) I posted over the weekend showing the ratio of first mortgages in Orange County that are 90-days late, have a foreclosure filing or are REO, meaning they have been foreclosed and still held by the bank or related entity (meaning not sold to an investor at auction). Data comes from First American CoreLogic.

This chart shows that the ratio of borrowers having missed at least three monthly payments is at nearly 7% and has risen every month for more than three years.

It’s incredible that while so many mortgages are delinquent, banks are only holding 0.26% of first mortgages as REOs.

By these measures, there’s clearly a big backlog of bad loans to deal with.

Update: I should also mention that the Obama administration’s loan modification program is likely adding to the backlog of delinquent loans. It takes time for banks to see if people qualify. And borrowers start the program in a “trial” period, getting at least a temporary modification to the terms of their loan but still being classified as delinquent. Reuters reports that more than 650,000 modifications are active now but it is unclear how many are permanent.  As of Sept. 1, there were only 1,711 permanent loan modifications.

And I’ll add that a reader notes some people are probably missing payments just to see if they can get a loan deal. That is what Sean O’Toole was referring to when he said banks are using foreclosure filings as a way to pressure people to start paying again.

More from this blog…

Banks hold few foreclosures

November 7th, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

The latest foreclosure figures from First American CoreLogic show a growing divergence in what’s happening to problematic mortgages in Orange County.

The ratio of bank-owned houses and condos, known as REO, against all outstanding first mortgages declined for the 13th straight month to just 0.26% in September — the lowest in 26 months. That sounds like a good thing for the housing market and economy.

But the number of bad loans in limbo continues to escalate.

In fact, the proportion of 90-day late loans has increased each month for more than three years (beginning in April 2006) and hit 6.96% in September.

The chart below shows REOs, 90-day lates, and properties with some kind of foreclosure filing. (Note: 90-day lates include the other two categories.)

click to enlarge
click to enlarge

The chart reflects a number of trends. For one thing, more troubled properties are selling at auctions, known as trustee’s sales, and thus are not going back to the bank as REO.

Sam Khater, senior economist with First American CoreLogic, said in an email:

The reason REOs have declined is that flow of distressed properties into REO has been artificially restricted due to local, state and GSE foreclosure moratoria, loan modifications and servicer backlogs. This has led to a drop in the supply of REO properties, while at the same time sales (including REO sales) increased due to the artificially low rates and first-time homebuyer tax credits, which further depleted the supply of REOs. This dynamic has led to the rapid improvement in home prices over the last six to eight months.

However, the mortgage distress is high and rising as is evident by the 90+ day category, which means the pending supply is building up due to high levels of negative equity and rising unemployment. So we have a situation where at the back end (ie REOs) it appears as if it’s getting better, but it’s really a mirage as we know that the pending supply pipeline default (ie 90+ day DQs) is looming larger.

Yup, at some point, we should see more short sales and foreclosures. Maybe early next year?

More from this blog…

These homes are about to be foreclosed

November 5th, 2009, 12:00 pm by Marilyn Kalfus, real estate reporter

First, in foreclosure news this week:

Every week, homes throughout Orange County go to foreclosure auctions. The owners can be millions of dollars in debt, foreclosedhomesmediumor owe just a few thousand.

Often these homes revert to the lenders, who eventually put them back on the market. Sometimes the homes are bought by investors and resold.

Foreclosures affect more than the homeowners involved. They can impact entire neighborhoods. At the very least, they can affect nearby home sales.

All of these homes and addresses have been listed in the public notices, as required by law.

See Coto de Caza HERE.

See Huntington Beach HERE.

See Irvine HERE.

See Ladera Ranch HERE.

See Laguna Beach HERE.

See Laguna Niguel HERE.

See Rancho Santa Margarita HERE.

See Yorba Linda HERE.

To read about how these auctions work, CLICK HERE.

Trustee, trustor … what’s the difference? To see foreclosure terms and definitions CLICK HERE.

Top tips for buying investment properties CLICK HERE.

Note: There are foreclosures in other Orange County cities — including Orange and Anaheim — but so far we haven’t had enough available writers to regularly compile foreclosure information from them. We hope to add more cities in the future.

More from this blog…

For a map of real estate listings and foreclosures, click here

Price rebound parallels foreclosure drop

November 3rd, 2009, 3:15 pm by Jeff Collins
click to enlarge

click to enlarge

The percentage of sales involving homes that had been through foreclosure during the prior 12 months continued to fall in September, down to 25.1% of home resales, MDA DataQuick reported.

That’s foreclosures’ lowest share of resales since February 2008.

And while it’s not surprising to note that falling foreclosures are tied to this year’s price surge, it is interesting to see how closely two trends — median home prices and foreclosures’ share of resales — correlate. (See chart at right)

A comparison shows:

  • Foreclosures’ share of resales began to climb two years ago in O.C., rising from 6 percent in August 2007 to 46 percent last January.
  • The median home price here fell to $370,000 from $642,000 in that time, a 42 percent decline.
  • Foreclosures’ share of resales since have dropped steadily, corresponding to a 16 percent rebound in median home prices, which increased to $429,000 in September.

Forecasters have debated how an expected revival in the foreclosure rate will impact home prices next year.

Anil Puri, dean of Cal State Fullerton’s Mihaylo College of Business and Economics projected that 2010 home prices in O.C. will rise no more than 2 or 3 percent because of high joblessness and a possible increase in foreclosures.

But economist Mark Schniepp, author of the UCLA Orange County economic forecast, predicted that the next wave of foreclosures won’t be big enough to derail housing’s recovery.

More on distressed home sales:

Foreclosures just 4% of homes for sale

November 3rd, 2009, 1:00 am by Jeff Collins

Aliso Viejo broker Steve Thomas of Altera Real Estate reports that it would take just 21 days to sell all the bank-owned homes in Orange County based on the current sales pace. And competition to buy those homes is so stiff that accepted offers are averaging 3% over the asking price, he said.

Fewer than one in 20 of the county’s 7,749 listings on Thursdays were repossessed homes taken by banks through foreclosure.

But short sales — homes selling for less than their debts — accounted for more than one in four O.C. listings, “a major player in today’s marketplace,” Thomas said. The chart below shows the long-term trend:

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

In addition, Thomas reports:

  • There are currently only 314 foreclosed homes for sale in all of Orange County, a decrease of eight in the past two weeks.
  • There are currently 2,075 short sales on the market, a decrease of just one in the past two weeks. Short sales currently represent 27 percent of the listings.
  • The expected market time for short sales — the theoretical time to sell all the listings at the current sales pace — is 56 days, vs. nearly seven months a year ago.
  • Overall, the total number of distressed listings — foreclosures and short sales — was 2,389, or 30.8 percent of the total number of homes for sale.
  • That’s down just nine homes from two weeks ago, but way down from a year ago. At the end of October 2008, there were 5,801 distressed homes on the market, accounting for 43.8 percent of the total listings.

Here’s a look at various slices of the O.C. market as of last Thursday: total listings; distressed listings; and percentage of all listings that are distressed … Read the rest of this entry »

These homes are about to be foreclosed

October 29th, 2009, 11:59 am by Marilyn Kalfus, real estate reporter

First, in foreclosure news this week:

Every week, homes throughout Orange County go to foreclosure auctions. The owners can be millions of dollars in debt, foreclosedhomesmediumor owe just a few thousand.

Often these homes revert to the lenders, who eventually put them back on the market. Sometimes the homes are bought by investors and resold.

Foreclosures affect more than the homeowners involved. They can impact entire neighborhoods. At the very least, they can affect nearby home sales.

All of these homes and addresses have been listed in the public notices, as required by law.

See Aliso Viejo HERE.

Huntington Beach HERE.

See Irvine HERE.

See Ladera Ranch HERE.

See Laguna Beach HERE.

See Laguna Hills HERE.

See Laguna Niguel HERE.

See Rancho Santa Margarita HERE.

See San Juan Capistrano HERE.

See Yorba Linda HERE.

To read about how these auctions work, CLICK HERE.

Trustee, trustor … what’s the difference? To see foreclosure terms and definitions CLICK HERE.

Top tips for buying investment properties CLICK HERE.

Note: There are foreclosures in other Orange County cities — including Orange and Anaheim — but so far we haven’t had enough available writers to regularly compile foreclosure information from them. We hope to add more cities in the future.

More from this blog…