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Will the Fed let mortgage rates rise?

November 24th, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

I’m seeing more news reports quoting people who think the Federal Reserve should, once again, extend its purchases of securities backed by mortgages issued by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The Fed is supposed to stop by March 31.

The latest comes from the Wall Street Journal quoting Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard:

“I have advocated to keep the asset purchase program open but at a very low level, and wait and see what happens, and as information comes in about the economy we can adjust that program while the federal funds rate remains at zero,” Bullard told Dow Jones Newswires in an interview Sunday ahead of a conference in New York. He added “no decision has been made” about the program’s fate.

Bullard becomes a voting member of the Federal Open Market Committee, which decides interest rates, in 2010.

The Fed has purchased more than $800 billion in mortgage securities and will buy up to $1.25 trillion.

So what do you think?
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Will the Fed stop buying mortgage securities in March?
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Ways to bulk up housing’s lifeline, FHA

November 23rd, 2009, 12:29 pm by Mathew Padilla

The San Francisco Chronicle recently outlined some ways to pump up the reserves of the Federal Housing Administration, which runs a now critical mortgage insurance program.

FHA has given a big boost to Orange County’s housing market, accounting for roughly 25% of home-purchase loans here in recent months.

However, FHA’s reserves have fallen below the amount required by Congress, and some fear a taxpayer-funded bailout may be needed in the future.

Here are two logical alternatives by the Chronicle’s Kenneth Harney:

Higher down payments. FHA accepts down payments as low as 3.5% — that’s just too low, some say. Harney writes: “Rep. Scott Garrett, R-N.J., introduced legislation last month requiring a minimum 5 percent down payment for all future FHA loans. Ed Pinto, who served as Fannie Mae’s chief credit officer in the 1980s and is now a mortgage industry consultant, says FHA needs to move to a 10 percent minimum.”

Of course, lenders and brokers who do FHA loans argue that anything more than 3.5% would stop some deserving folks from buying a home.

Higher mortgage insurance premiums. Borrowers pay a 1.75% premium and that money is used to pay for losses on loan defaults. Most borrowers simply roll the amount into the loan and thus pay it off monthly. FHA also charges an annual premium of around 0.5%, and that is also paid monthly. FHA could raise these premiums up to the maximum allowed by Congress: 2.25% for the upfront one and 3% for the annual fee.

Read the full article on boosting FHA’s reserves.

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Housing threat looms in South County

November 23rd, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

Banks started the foreclosure process on hundreds of homeowners in South Orange County in the third quarter of this year, in a sign cities there could see more actual foreclosures in the months ahead.

Bank owned signThe ZIP with the highest concentration of homeowners in distress was 92694 in Ladera Ranch — lenders filed 167 notices of default (NOD) during the three months ending in September, down a tad from the second quarter but up 69% from a year ago, reports MDA DataQuick.

The total of 167 NODs equates to 25 default notices per 1,000 homes, the highest such ratio in the county. By that measure, Ladera Ranch saw a greater concentration of housing stress than heavily impacted areas further north, including Santa Ana and Anaheim. Three ZIPs in Santa Ana had a ratio of 19 notices per 1,000 homes.

Rounding out the top five was Rancho Santa Margarita’s 92688, another South County ZIP, with a ratio of 17 default notices per 1,000. Banks filed 228 NODs in that ZIP, up 9% from Q2 and 84% from a year earlier.

Banks typically file a notice of default, which starts the foreclosure process, after a borrower misses three or more monthly payments.

Here’s a table showing NODs in Q3 by ZIP, with percentage gain from a year ago, and NODs per 1,000 homes.

ZIP CITY NODs Q3 Yvs.Y NOD/1,000H
92694 Ladera Ranch 167 68.7% 25
92703 Santa Ana 142 -9.0% 19
92701 Santa Ana 107 -31.0% 19
92707 Santa Ana 183 -6.6% 19
92688 Rancho Santa Margarita 228 83.9% 17
92704 Santa Ana 216 -0.9% 16
92801 Anaheim 119 12.3% 16
92675 San Juan Capistrano 164 141.2% 16
92804 Anaheim 213 6.0% 16
92843 Garden Grove 108 2.9% 16
92805 Anaheim 137 -10.5% 15
92841 Garden Grove 88 39.7% 14
92780 Tustin 140 48.9% 14
92655 Midway City 18 125.0% 14
92844 Garden Grove 58 18.4% 14
92610 Foothill Ranch 59 31.1% 14
92706 Santa Ana 100 23.5% 13
92656 Aliso Viejo 198 45.6% 13
92806 Anaheim 75 4.2% 13
90621 Buena Park 69 15.0% 13
92679 Trabuco/Coto 148 124.2% 13
92840 Garden Grove 135 -3.6% 13
90680 Stanton 64 -8.6% 13
92653 Laguna Hills 115 42.0% 13
92868 Orange 47 51.6% 13
92782 Tustin 91 106.8% 12
92802 Anaheim 65 -11.0% 12
92808 Anaheim 80 142.4% 12
92833 Fullerton 150 28.2% 12
90631 La Habra 186 59.0% 11
92832 Fullerton 44 37.5% 11
92673 San Clemente 108 120.4% 11
92676 Silverado 10 400.0% 11
92630 Lake Forest 192 8.5% 11
92677 Laguna Niguel 239 51.3% 11
92657 Newport Coast 46 283.3% 10
92683 Westminster 178 16.3% 10
92691 Mission Viejo 158 38.6% 10
90620 Buena Park 112 3.7% 10
92823 Brea 11 37.5% 10
92627 Costa Mesa 90 12.5% 9
92626 Costa Mesa 95 39.7% 9
92869 Orange 100 31.6% 9
92603 Irvine 56 107.4% 9
92861 Villa Park 18 63.6% 9
92602 Irvine 43 38.7% 9
92831 Fullerton 57 46.2% 8
92867 Orange 87 17.6% 8
92705 Santa Ana 94 10.6% 8
92870 Placentia 110 37.5% 8
92865 Orange 41 -4.7% 8
92887 Yorba Linda 54 42.1% 8
92692 Mission Viejo 137 93.0% 8
92807 Anaheim 96 18.5% 8
92620 Irvine 86 36.5% 8
92612 Irvine 49 28.9% 8
92629 Dana Point 79 172.4% 8
92835 Fullerton 56 86.7% 8
92648 Huntington Beach 91 68.5% 8
92886 Yorba Linda 109 60.3% 7
92606 Irvine 32 113.3% 7
92821 Brea 63 12.5% 7
92647 Huntington Beach 84 121.1% 7
92614 Irvine 47 104.3% 7
92604 Irvine 56 93.1% 7
92663 Newport Beach 43 126.3% 7
92618 Irvine 22 -4.3% 7
92866 Orange 17 88.9% 6
92708 Fountain Valley 103 56.1% 6
92845 Garden Grove 34 126.7% 6
92660 Newport Beach 62 169.6% 6
92624 Dana Point 25 257.1% 6
90630 Cypress 75 31.6% 6
90623 La Palma 23 4.5% 6
92672 San Clemente 84 50.0% 5
92651 Laguna Beach 58 87.1% 5
92646 Huntington Beach 93 29.2% 5
92649 Huntington Beach 48 20.0% 5
90720 Los Alamitos 23 43.8% 4
92625 Corona del Mar 18 157.1% 4
90740 Seal Beach 16 -15.8% 3
92662 Newport Beach 2 0.0% 3
92637 Laguna Woods 20 42.9% 3
92661 Newport Beach 4 n/a 2

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Delinquencies could pull down home prices

November 21st, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported this week nationwide home loan delinquencies hit 9.6% at the end of September. Also, 4.5% of loans are in some stage of foreclosure — so a total of 14% of loans are at least one payment late.

The MBA expects foreclosures to peak in 2011.

The New York Times reported on rising delinquencies and few loan modifications becoming permanent so far under the Obama administration’s Making Home Affordable program. Here’s a quote from the story:

“I’ve been pretty bearish on this big ugly pig stuck in the python and this cements my view that home prices are going back down,” said the housing consultant Ivy Zelman.

We’ll see soon enough.

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Reader with cash weighs home buying options

November 20th, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

randy-johnson.jpgRandy Johnson, president of Independence Mortgage Co. in Newport Beach, author of “How to Save Thousands of Dollars on Your Home Mortgage” and a mortgage broker since 1983, answers questions…

Q. I own a house with $400,000 left on my mortgage at 5%. Similar houses nearby are worth between $470,000 and $530,000. Through selling of my employer’s stock options, savings and other investments, I have about $500,000 sitting in money market accounts and CDs, earning very low interest. I would like to take the downturn as an opportunity to move up to a bigger house and keep my current one as a rental. My question is which way to go: one mortgage vs. two mortgages? Should I pay off my current mortgage and borrow for the new house? Or should I leave the remaining mortgage balance untouched and pay as much as possible towards the new house purchase? My job is in good shape. I have excellent credit, no debt other than the mortgage on my current home. I heard with my income level, the tax benefit from mortgage interest will be very limited or completely phased out in the next year or two.

A. For most people Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have a rule that says you must have at least 30% equity in your home if you plan on keeping it as a rental. There have been too many instances where someone “says” that he is going to rent it out, but when there is no equity, as soon as he has the new home, he lets the old one go. This rule does NOT apply if you have enough income to qualify for both the current loan and the loan on the new property.

If you can’t do that, you could pay down the current mortgage to 70% of the appraised value and that would still leave you with plenty of money for a down payment on a new home.

So far as the tax law is concerned, I have been hearing that for more than 40 years. The only thing that has happened is that the IRS limits interest deductions to mortgage amounts of less than $1,000,000 plus $100,000 equity line. I think this has been a sacred cow but Congress is going to have to figure out how to raise revenue and at some point the deduction may be further limited.

Judy in Anaheim Hills:
Q. Is it best to go directly to the bank that holds your mortgage if you want to get it re-evaluated for a refinance? The loan payments are in good standing, but it was purchased high! There are all kinds of ads/promotions stating they can help and appear to be legit; how do I analyze which is the right way to go?

A. It has not been my experience that going back to your current “lender” has any advantages, but I would include them on your call list, especially if you have a jumbo loan. Most lenders are really “servicers” who collect your payments and manage the loan for the actual owner. A majority of loans in this country are owned by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac and with a couple of exceptions any lender you choose can offer the same options as any other. However, and this is critically important, you ought to choose someone who is really talented to help you explore those options. All too often the people who answer the phones at many lenders are poorly paid, inexperienced people who cannot offer you accurate or helpful advice.

That’s it. If you want Johnson to answer a question, email it to Mathew Padilla at mapadilla(at)ocregister.com. Include your name or nickname and the city you live in — that information will be published with your question. Johnson will answer up to three questions each week, so keep checking back for a response.

Read prior questions and answers by clicking on the headlines below…

Find out more about: MORTGAGE ANSWERS | MORTGAGE RATES | FORECLOSURES | HOME PRICES | INVENTORY | RENTS | FED |

Republicans want hearings on FHA

November 19th, 2009, 7:20 am by Mathew Padilla

Republicans on the House Financial Services Committee are calling for hearings on the financial health of the Federal Housing Administration’s reserve fund, which recently reported a drop in its capital ratio to 0.57%, well below the amount required by Congress. Here’s more from National Mortgage News:

Citing FHA’s deteriorating financial position, Reps. Spencer Bachus (Ala.) and Shelley Capito (W. Va.) are urging committee chairman Barney Frank, D-Mass., to schedule a hearing as soon as possible. “If home prices do not recover, the economic value of the Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund could fall below zero. We are concerned that such a drop could force HUD to request an appropriation from Congress,” the two Republican lawmakers say in a letter. FHA officials maintain that they have taken corrective actions and the insurance fund is in no imminent danger of running out of cash. If necessary, the agency could raise the FHA upfront premium to keep the fund in the black. However, Reps. Bachus and Capito also have concerns about FHA’s technological and management capacity. “It is incumbent upon our committee to get prompt answers to many of the questions surrounding FHA’s risk management practices and finances,” the Republicans say in a letter to Rep. Frank.

FHA has been critical to reviving the housing market. Since the loan limit was raised to nearly $730,000 in Orange County, for example, FHA loans have accounted for roughly 25% of home purchase loans here.

Speaking of FHA, I also saw a story on Bloomberg by my former Register colleague John Gittelsohn:

The Federal Housing Administration, the agency that insures home purchases made with down payments as small as 3.5 percent, may create another lending crisis, Toll Brothers Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Toll said.

“Yesterday’s subprime is today’s FHA,” Toll said today at a New York conference for builders sponsored by UBS AG. “It’s a definite train wreck and the flag will go up in the next couple of months: Bail us out. Give us more money.” Toll Brothers is the largest U.S. luxury homes builder.

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Regulator calls for ban on liar loans

November 18th, 2009, 4:46 pm by Mathew Padilla

Comptroller of the Currency John Dugan today called on regulators around the globe to set minimum underwriting standards for all mortgages made in their respective countries.

For the U.S., prohibiting most forms of loans where borrowers elect not to provide proof of their income and/or assets is at the top of his list. Such loans are sometimes called “stated income” loans or less kindly “liar” loans.

Here are his top three suggested changes:

Verification of income and assets. Low- and no-documentation mortgages have performed extremely poorly in terms of delinquency, default, and foreclosure, he said. Not only do they invite misrepresentation and fraud, but these mortgages materially distort the integrity of other underwriting standards that rely on accurate measures of a borrower’s income. “Regulators should consider prohibiting this practice except in very, very limited circumstances where it clearly can be justified,” he said.
Meaningful down payments. As house prices rose, lenders responded by allowing lower down payments. With defaults low, lenders and investors then began to tolerate “no-money down” mortgages. “The effect has been pernicious,” the Comptroller said, noting that OCC data shows borrowers are much more likely to walk away from loans where they have none of their own money – or “skin in the game” – invested in the mortgage. Mr. Dugan said it will not be easy to decide how large a down payment is appropriate, since too high a requirement would result in many creditworthy borrowers being turned down for a mortgage. “We will need to exercise great care in striking that balance,” he said.
For mortgages with monthly payments that increase over time, qualifying borrowers on their ability to afford the later, higher payments rather than just the initial, lower payments. Too many “nontraditional” mortgages were structured so that payments were low at first, but increased over time, and sometimes very sharply. Mr. Dugan said that borrowers qualified at the lower initial rate often couldn’t afford the higher payments. “That is the type of underwriting practice that generally should be prohibited, because it often implicitly relies on house price appreciation as the ultimate source of repayment of the loan – and as we have learned all too painfully in the last two years, house prices can certainly go down as well as up,” he said.

On this blog we have had some recent heated debates on when stated income loans should be allowed — the answer is never. Read the last stated-income debate HERE.

And read the full release from John Dugan and the OCC.

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Mortgage volume to tank 30% next year

November 18th, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

A mixed forecast courtesy of National Mortgage News:

Residential originations will decline by almost 30% next year to $1.38 trillion as rising interest rates put a crimp on new originations, according to a new forecast from Fannie Mae. The GSE believes originations will total $1.95 trillion this year. (The Quarterly Data Report, a National Mortgage News publication, is forecasting $2.1 trillion in fundings this year.) Last month the Mortgage Bankers Association reduced its 2010 forecast to about $1.6 trillion. … Fannie’s economists predict the interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans will average 5.42% in 2010 compared to 5.07% this year. Refinancings will comprise only 47% of originations, compared to 67% this year. “We continue to expect a 10% increase in home sales in 2010,” Fannie chief economist Doug Duncan says in his monthly “Economic Developments” update report. He believes FHA will be the beneficiary due to congressional action to extend the first-time homebuyer tax credit and expand it to buyers in the move-up market. “The tax credit will likely be a boon for the Federal Housing Administration, whose share of purchase mortgages has increased significantly during the past year,” he said. FHA insured $170.6 billion in purchase mortgages in fiscal-year 2009 with 78.5% going to first-time homebuyers.

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Regulators tap Pimco to assess mortgage bonds

November 17th, 2009, 4:29 pm by Mathew Padilla

Newport Beach-based Pacific Investment Management Co. was picked by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners to help assess companies’ portfolios of residential mortgage-backed securities, reports Bloomberg. Here’s more:

Pimco will help evaluate about 18,000 RMBS owned by U.S. insurers, the NAIC said in a statement today. The evaluations will help regulators determine how much capital insurers need to guard against losses on slumping home-loan investments.

Regulators are seeking assistance in valuing investments after the housing slump pushed up mortgage defaults. State insurance commissioners, which monitor portfolios to make sure carriers have enough money to pay claims, discontinued their use of RMBS credit grades issued by ratings firms including Moody’s Investors Service after downgrades caused a fivefold increase in capital requirements this year.

Pimco, a unit of Munich-based Allianz SE, was selected from a short list of 11 vendors that were considered by the NAIC, the regulator group said. Mark Porterfield, a spokesman for Pimco, didn’t immediately return a call seeking comment.

In related news, Calpers trims Pimco bond investments.

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Banks start foreclosure on 2,100 mortgages

November 17th, 2009, 1:50 pm by Mathew Padilla

DataQuick reports lenders filed 2,152 notices of default in Orange County in October, down 3.2 percent from September but up 132.6 percent from a year ago.

Default notices fell for the third straight month, which could reflect borrowers getting more affordable terms to their loans under the Obama administration’s loan modification program.

Making Home Affordable is reaching more people, but it is unclear how many are getting permanent loan modifications. The administration won’t release figures on completed modifications until December. And those getting temporary modifications account for just 20 percent of all eligible loans at least two months past due.

Default notices initiate the foreclosure process and are typically filed after a borrower misses three or more monthly payments.

Banks foreclosed on 763 houses and condos last month, up 7.6 percent from the prior month and 3.5 percent from a year ago. Foreclosures fell for the previous three months, so it is too early to say if the October rise indicates a trend.

But if many borrowers don’t get permanent loan modifications, foreclosures will likely increase in the months ahead.

A separate report from a real estate agent showed a recent uptick in foreclosures and short sales listed for sale. Short sales are when a bank agrees to accept less than debt owed on a property. It’s also possible that short sales will increase, if modifications fail.

For sales and pricing information, check out Lansner on Real Estate.

The following table shows defaults and foreclosures (Forec.) going back to 2007:

Year 2009 2008 2007
Month Defaults Forec. Defaults Forec. Defaults Forec.
January 2,200 835 2,352 802 847 152
February 2,742 770 2,254 733 811 164
March 3,485 541 2,476 698 986 204
April 2,947 482 2,598 898 855 234
May 2,590 591 2,468 1,131 1,021 276
June 2,724 833 2,498 1,213 1,108 311
July 2,968 806 2,337 1,362 1,167 367
August 2,246 723 2,484 1,441 1,476 469
September 2,222 709 871 1,194 1,239 444
October 2,152 763 925 737 1,448 530
November 1,205 633 933 364
December 2,351 718 1,895 644
TOTAL 26,276 7,053 24,819 11,560 13,786 4,159

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A failed prosecution

November 17th, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

“There was a reasonable doubt on every charge,” said a juror in the case against two former Bear Stearns hedge fund managers. The quote comes from the New York Times.

Ralph Cioffi and Matthew Tannin were found not guilty of securities fraud in federal court in New York last week.

I am writing about the case now, only because I was too focused on other things to do it last week.

The collapse of the funds managed by Tannin and Cioffi marked the beginning of the credit crisis. In reality their case was great theater but not very significant. By the time the funds collapsed toxic debt had already spread to the books of countless banks here and abroad and was held by many investors. Subprime was the tip of the iceberg.

Still, a commentary by William Cohan for the Times is an interesting read. He writes:

In short, the prosecution blew it — on two counts. First, in devising the original indictment for conspiracy and securities fraud … it relied on damning snippets of lengthy e-mail messages that when viewed in their entirety proved to be highly ambiguous. Second, the prosecution made a reductionist opening argument claiming the men were nothing more than out-and-out liars, needlessly raising the bar in terms of what it had to prove to jurors.

So far I have not heard of any criminal charges against the real players in real estate finance’s recent boom and bust. It seems like the Securities and Exchange Commission’s civil charges against Angelo Mozilo, co-founder of Countrywide Financial, are the closest thing I have seen. (No opinion from me on his innocence or guilt, just noting the case.)

So what do you think?
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Will we see many more criminal prosecutions?
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Fed to continue supporting mortgage market

November 16th, 2009, 11:50 am by Mathew Padilla

Ben Bernanke, head of the Federal Reserve, said Monday the central bank will continue to support the mortgage market while bank lending remains constrained, reports National Mortgage News. Here’s more:

“We continue to encourage banks to raise additional capital to support their lending. And we continue to facilitate securitizing through our Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) and to support home lending through our purchases of mortgage-backed securities,” the Fed chief told the Economic Club of New York. The Fed has purchased more than $800 billion in agency MBS and it recently extended its MBS purchase program through March 31. (The effort was originally slated to expire at yearend 2009.) The Fed chairman noted that banks have tightened their lending standards more than the central bank had expected. “Unfortunately, reduced bank lending may well slow the recovery,” Mr. Bernanke said. A Fed survey of senior loan officers in October found that 25% of banks had tightened their underwriting standards on prime single-family loans, a slightly higher percentage than reported in the July survey.

Bernanke seems to be saying the Fed is prepared to do more to support home lending.

Maybe it will extend purchases of mortgage securities beyond March 31 — if the Fed does stop buying MBS, mortgage rates are expected to rise at least 25 to 50 basis points (Note: there are 100 basis points in a percentage point).

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More foreclosures and short sales hit the market

November 16th, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

There were more foreclosures and short sales on the market last Thursday in Orange County than two weeks earlier — not a comforting trend heading into the holidays.

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

The chart from Steve Thomas at Altera Real Estate in Aliso Viejo shows that while foreclosures and short sales (when a bank agrees to accept less than debt owed on a property) have declined over much of this year, over the past month they have been flat or increasing slightly.

It’s hard to say if this trend will continue. I expect at least a modest increase in short sales and possibly foreclosures as borrowers fail to get loan modifications under the Obama administration’s program. The most recent data about Making Home Affordable has shown a slight increase in folks getting help, but most people 60 days past due on their mortgage and eligible are not even in trial modifications and it’s unclear how many permanent modifications have taken place.

Back to Thomas, he notes in Orange County:

  • “There are currently only 339 foreclosures in all of Orange County (as actively listed for sale), an increase of 25 in the past two weeks.
  • Foreclosures only represent 4% of the active listing market.
  • Foreclosures continue to be exceptionally HOT and are, on average, selling for 3% above their asking prices.
  • There are currently 2,123 short sales on the active market, an increase of 48 in the past two weeks. Short sales currently represent 28% of the active listing inventory.”

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Investors up bets on foreclosures

November 14th, 2009, 1:00 am by Mathew Padilla

Is another housing bubble inflating?

click to enlarge

click to enlarge

ForeclosureRadar.com reports investors bought 337 houses and condos at foreclosure auctions, known as trustee’s sales, in Orange County last month, up 21% from September and 157% from a year earlier.

Properties sold to investors are the blue columns in the chart (click for larger image).  It’s clear from the chart that this year investors have been increasing their auction purchases. (The red columns are properties that became real estate owned, REO).

ForeclosureRadar reports that statewide the trend is the same; investors are competing more vigorously for auctioned properties:

Many auction investors are gaining confidence that they can make money reselling homes purchased on the court house steps, given the limited supply of homes available on the MLS and continued demand stimulus in the form of tax credits and low interest rates.

Maybe someone should tell investors about the big backlog in delinquent loans.

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