Distressed homes 42% of O.C. listings
September 8th, 2008, 4:20 am · 11 Comments · posted by Jon Lansner/ocregister.com
Home market watcher Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo reports that the number of O.C. distressed properties (homes listed by agents as foreclosures or short sales) was 5,744 last week, that’s down 121 vs. two weeks earlier or a -2.1% change. Also …
- As a percent of all listed homes for sale, distressed properties were 42.3% of the market last week vs. 41.7% two weeks earlier.
- Since Dec. 27, the number of distressed homes on the market has grown 1,993; while the non-distressed supply is 3,926 lower.
- And an FYI: O.C.’s supply/demand ratio has improved 68% in a year. Read MORE HERE!
Here’s a look at various slices of the O.C. market as of last Thursday: total inventory listings; distressed property listings; and the share distressed listings have of total inventory supply on a percentage basis in each niche …
| Slice | All inventory | Distressed | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| By price … | |||
| • O.C. $0-$500k | 6,875 | 4,472 | 65% |
| • O.C. $500k-$750k | 4,167 | 885 | 21% |
| • O.C. $750k-$1m | 1,750 | 262 | 15% |
| • O.C. $1m-$1.5m | 1,184 | 126 | 11% |
| • O.C. $1.5m-$2m | 654 | 39 | 6% |
| • O.C. $2m-4m | 761 | 19 | 2% |
| • O.C. $4m+ | 253 | 2 | 1% |
| All O.C. | 13,582 | 5,744 | 42% |
| • Attached | 5,111 | 2,510 | 49% |
| • Detached | 8,475 | 3,234 | 38% |
| County high share … | |||
| • Santa Ana | 1,425 | 1,126 | 79% |
| • Anaheim | 961 | 705 | 73% |
| • Lake Forest | 261 | 184 | 70% |
| County low share … | |||
| • Laguna Woods | 419 | 11 | 3% |
| • Corona Del Mar | 172 | 5 | 3% |
| • Seal Beach | 205 | 8 | 4% |
And in related news…
- Fannie/Freddie bailout only helps some borrowers
- Foreclosure of the week: Walk to the beach
- Regulators order Downey Financial to raise capital
- When you can’t afford your mortgage
- O.C. 7th riskiest place to make home loan
- The finest foreclosures
- Ditech parent to cut 5,000 jobs
- Fremont’s CEO and president resign
September 8th, 2008 at 10:36 am
The usual horrific news for OC real estate but for comic relief go to Lansner’s blog to check out the last of the mohicans, the only permabear left standing: Miss mully-mulliganville shrilly touting real estate. c’mon knifecatchers, you gotta grease a commission for these touts. Meanwhile, the market grinds ever downward.
September 8th, 2008 at 11:33 am
I realize you focus Southern California. However, I’m struck by the marked difference between what you report for your area and what the media reports for Northern California.
According to media reports, there have only been small (0-10%) drops in home prices in the San Francisco area. This is despite the fact that incomes around the area are not much higher than elsewhere in the state or country. Certainly not enough to warrant the factor of 2 or 3 home prices.
If you can point to good sources of information or explain why San Francisco is so different from Los Angeles, I would appreciate it. AFAIK, income and assets from technology companies’ options only helps a small fraction (about 10%) of the population. How are the rest surviving. If they have been using Option-ARMs, IO loans etc, how come the prices here have not dropped?
September 8th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
2/3 of SF is renters, 1/3 owners.
OC is the other way around.
September 8th, 2008 at 1:38 pm
I’d agree with no_vaseline on that one. Lots of urban renters in San Fran!
If you are talking about the City of San Francisco, it has a very different lifestyle demographic than OC. San Fran is denseley urban with 760,000 residents. Orange County is widely suburban with 3.1 Million residents.
But according to Wikipedia, OC and San Fran are very similarly diverse when it comes to ethnic and cultural demographics however, but the way the residents live in each locale is very different;
San Fran 45% Non-Hispanic White
OC 47% Non-Hispanic White
San Fran 33% Asian/Pacific
OC 17% Asian/Pacific
San Fran 14% Hispanic
OC 33% Hispanic
San Fran 7% Black
OC 2% Black
San Fran Median Family Income $67,000
OC Median Family Income $76,000
Although OC has four times the number of people than San Fran and they are similar on paper demographically, they are vastly different in reality.
September 8th, 2008 at 2:04 pm
Excellent info and point Troy! However, if you take the Bay Area as a whole (like down towards San Jose and the rest of the Silicon Valley) and not limit it to San Francisco, I’d be willing to bet the incomes ARE higher and that not as many people jumped into Subprime or Alt-A stuff though I don’t have any hard stats to back that up, only I know most of the Alt-A loans I did were down in S. California and the Central Valley on up to Sacramento. Of course, towns like Tracy, Pittsburg, Antioch, etc. were kind of the Bay Area’s “Inland Empire” as Riverside, Corona, Hemet, etc. were for S. Cal.
September 8th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Steve Thomas has a broken spreadsheet.
Inventory:
6,875
+4167
+1750
+1184
+654
+761
+253
= 15,644
Steve Thomas’ total = 13,582, a 2062 difference.
Distressed total = 5805, Steve Thomas’ total = 5744, a 61 difference.
Would someone please hold this guy accountable for the huge and increasing discrepancies he has each and every month? I can’t believe no one from the press has called him on this discrepancy that happens every month. And you wonder why the bears rip him apart? He can’t even add properly, let alone be considered a credible source with such a simple and huge error.
September 8th, 2008 at 7:58 pm
Name: there is a HUGE difference in the buyer domains
The demand for a home in SF, NYC, and other heavily populated cities is much higher than that here in the OC
How many people are travelling into the OC for work each day?
Compare that to SF or NYC - you will find the difference to be measured in orders of magnitude.
September 8th, 2008 at 7:59 pm
For SF - I meant into the bay area for work
September 8th, 2008 at 9:51 pm
Thanks for all the comments. Interesting thoughts.
I’m still a bit confused though. Median household income in the SF Bay Area is about 1/10 median house price.
Unless the median family got 7/10 of the home price from stock options, selling their previous home or some other means, the only thing keeping the market stable is the fact (I’m hypothesizing, I don’t really know) that Option-ARMs, I/O loans etc have not hit resets, caps on principal etc.
I’ve seen figures bandied about that say that 2/3 of the mortgages used in the last 5 years in the Bay Area were such. However, I’ve never found a reliable source to back this up or dispute it, so I just don’t know what to believe.
September 9th, 2008 at 1:25 am
not buying it,
You said: “How many people are travelling into the OC for work each day?” If you were asking a serious question, we could maybe look at Dept. of Transportation numbers for this. If you were REALLY saying “There aren’t that many people driving in to work in OC every day” I say you lost any shred of credibility you may have had. Do you even live in OC? Do you NOT know the traffic coming from: South on the 5 out of LA? South on the 57 out of LA and San Bernardino County? The traffic coming South on the 405 out of LA? The traffic coming West on the 91 from Riverside and San Bernardino? And finally, the traffic coming North on the 5 out of San Diego? The first 4 I listed: PACKED!!! during the morning “Rush” hour! The last, still PLENTY of cars coming North from North County. I would guess tens of thousands of cars and hundreds of thousands of people coming in to work having travelled on ALL said freeways during peak morning hours. Perhaps you haven’t ever gotten the memo but Orange County has been and STILL IS a MAJOR economic engine! You need to get out more!
Matt, you work for The Register…don’t you have access to some sort of database so you can help “not buying it” out here? I myself like to deal in facts not agenda-driven opinion. Thanks
September 9th, 2008 at 11:40 am
Where’s the rest of the chart (by city)?