Home market watcher Steve Thomas at Re/Max Real Estate Services in Aliso Viejo reports that the number of O.C. distressed properties (homes listed by agents as foreclosures or short sales) was 5,894 last week, down 59 vs. two weeks earlier, or a 1% drop. Note …
- This is only the second two-week period where the supply of distressed homes for sales has dropped this year.
- As a percent of all listed homes for sale, distressed properties were 40.0% of the market last week vs. 40.5% two weeks earlier.
- Since Dec. 27, the number of distressed homes on the market has grown 2,143 . Meanwhile, the non-distressed supply is 2,912 lower. (Read more on homes-for-sale supply HERE!)
Here’s a look at various slices of the O.C. market as of last Thursday: total inventory listings; distressed property listings; and the share distressed listings have of total inventory supply on a percentage basis in each niche …
| Slice | All inventory | Distressed | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| By price … | |||
| • O.C. $0-$500k | 6,875 | 4,602 | 67% |
| • O.C. $500k-$750k | 4,167 | 938 | 23% |
| • O.C. $750k-$1m | 1,750 | 255 | 15% |
| • O.C. $1m-$1.5m | 1,184 | 119 | 10% |
| • O.C. $1.5m-$2m | 654 | 27 | 4% |
| • O.C. $2m-4m | 761 | 19 | 2% |
| • O.C. $4m+ | 253 | 0 | 0% |
| All O.C. | 14,746 | 5,894 | 40% |
| • Attached | 5,526 | 2,576 | 47% |
| • Detached | 9,241 | 3,316 | 36% |
| County high share … | |||
| • Santa Ana | 1,538 | 1,176 | 76% |
| • Anaheim | 1,120 | 774 | 69% |
| • Garden Grove | 566 | 373 | 66% |
| County low share … | |||
| • Laguna Woods | 418 | 5 | 1% |
| • Corona Del Mar | 173 | 3 | 2% |
| • Seal Beach | 204 | 7 | 3% |
Related topics…
- Economist says mortgage bill no ’silver bullet’ for housing woes
- Nearly 80% of Calif. homeowners lose home after first warning from bank
- June foreclosures top 1,000 for a second month
- 2 of 5 subprime borrowers who got help defaulted again
- Shift in loan delinquencies — prime up, subprime down
- Early foreclosure filings dip in June in Orange County
- With foreclosures come disease, arson
- Home equity delinquencies highest since 1997
- Foreclosure auction firms accused of “bait and switch”
Wow! Over 2/3rd’s of the $500K and below segment is distressed. I’m actually quite shocked at that, but affordability isn’t a problem according to some.
$380K for a new 1100s.f. 2br/2ba condo in Garden Grove? Still a bit expensive for what you get. This is Garden Grove on Harbor and Chapman and you still have to come up with a monthly payment of around $2300 (plus $38K down payment). That’s not a lot of home for a qualifying household income of $90,000.
Less than one percent. Anybody heard of statistical insignificance? There is a big, fat trend line and no reason to pay ANY attention to a tiny wiggle.
The whole tea-leaf-reading enterprise is based on a flawed premise. Prices are not going to do anything but nose-dive, even if foreclosures stabilize. It bothers me that there is this “nudge-nudge, wink-wink” approach to the numbers. Without actually coming out and saying so, this guy wants the gullible to believe that they must buy now, right away, or miss out on this terrific opportunity. The point of a journalist is to let readers know that this is nonsense, by any reasonable interpretation of economics, the history of house prices, and the data.
The calm before the storm…..Watch as the market gets demolished in the next 6 months. Keep your assets liquid there will be a lot of houses for sale for 1999 prices.
STOP the madness! Find the house/condo you love - live in it - make memories and enjoy the pride of home ownership, contributions to your community and the tax write-off!
Go Big-
Nice catch on the flawed numbers. If I’m not mistaken, this is the second time in 3 weeks that his numbers have been questionable. Again, the inventory numbers by slice don’t add up to the total.
Steve Thomas is still unable to work a basic spreadsheet to perform addition. I’ve posted on this in the past, and emailed Steve Thomas about this problem. Apparently, to no avail.
Add up the numbers in the “All Inventory” category by price and they add up to 15,644 (not 14,746).
Add up the numbers in the “Distressed” category price and they add up to 5,960 (not 5,894).
Add up the attached and detached “All Inventory” numbers and they add up to 14,767 (not 14,746).
Add up the attached and detached “Distressed” numbers and they add up to 5,892 (not 5,894).
How can we trust ANY of Steve Thomas’s numbers if he can’t add accurately? These basic math problems exist in his reports going back for months.
Blogger: care to ask Steve about the problems with his math? Look at any of his reports from this year and you will find these errors. I appreciate that he tracks OC, but it really does not do us any good if we don’t trust his numbers. And we can’t trust them when we can see that they are blatantly wrong.
To all who say Steve Thomas can’t do math…
I took note of your complaints last time and asked him about it. He said the problem isn’t with math. The problem is with how real estate agents enter their listings into the MLS. For example, some agents list price ranges on distressed properties. These can be double counted. That’s why the total by price adds up to 5,960 (if you care to do the math) and the total is listed as 5,894.
Thomas admits he could filter out the double counting. However, he spends about four hours on each report and figures it’s good enough. He said he likely will add better disclaimers.
Personally, if the numbers don’t exactly match up, I can live with it. Let’s face it, he’s the only one trying to quantify this stuff in real time, as opposed to companies like DataQuick that look at public filings based on deals entered into possibly three months ago.
Matt-
I’m sure Mr. Thomas can do the math, but the mistakes just come across as sloppy. I appreciate the clarification you provided, but if you look at Go Big’s post he’s correct that Thomas is still listing the same All Inventory numbers that were on the May report. So in effect, the July distressed inventory is being compared to May’s total inventory resulting in percentages that are completely distorted and meaningless. It appears that the All OC percent may be correct, but the percentages by slice are understating the proportion of distressed homes. If I were a pessimist, it would strike me as Realtor bias….