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That didn’t take long
June 16th, 2008, 9:10 pm · 14 Comments · posted by Mathew Padilla
How fast are foreclosures hitting the market in Orange County?
In the first five months of this year, banks foreclosed on 4,261 houses and condos. That total is greater than all the 4,160 foreclosures in 2007. (Hat tip Graphrix)
Notices of default in the first five months totaled 12,148, a little less than the 13,786 NODs filed in all of 2007.
Stay tuned.
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I really miss Jimmy and Gary Watts….
Matt,
What is the outlook on foreclosures for the next 6 mo.? The graph shows exponential growth.
The outlook is that exponential growth will continue through 2010. By 2013 all private dwellings in the O.C. will be in foreclosure. Mobs of angry squatters roam the streets, foraging for snack foods and setting fire to the mounds of garbage on every curbside. Anarchy in L.A.! But wait a second, that’s the McCain administration outlook…. Vote for the other guy and let sensible folks find a way to walk this thing back…
2 cents Says:
June 16th, 2008 at 11:21 pm
Matt,
What is the outlook on foreclosures for the next 6 mo.? The graph shows exponential growth.
I can’t speak for Matt, but the NOD to foreclosure ratio is about at 67%, and increasing YOY and MOM, and would mean over 6300 foreclosures in the next six months. But, don’t take my word for it, I have been way off on the ratio increasing, I have underestimated it big time. So, it can be a lot worse than I expect, and if you check my past expectations they have consistently underestimated how bad it will get. The only way I can describe it, and Matt’s chart shows it, is it will be parabolic.
Go look that up thoughtless (not 2cents), parabolic, that is what is happening with foreclosures, parabolic. And, it is not just Santa Ana and Anaheim.
My Gosh … this real estate debacle is worse than even I anticipated. The shocking part is there are lots of loans going in to default in Orange County’s most desired communities.
Example ~ Per Foreclosure Radar:
Laguna Niguel ~ 209
Irvine ~ 310
Aliso Viejo ~ 191
Newport Beach ~ 98
Oh, my…do you really mean that we’re expected to not only pay the interest, but to actually PAY OFF the loan?
Enough of the ‘crises’ mode. Let’s get back to rationale pricing and let the cards fall where they may.
Great more homes to buy! Are you happy now?
I haven’t seen sellers in my area (Lake Forest/MIssion Viejo) dropping prices must more than the initial 20% YOY.
In order for this to remain “parabolic” you’d expect prices to continue to slide. I’m not seeing it..YET.
A modest NB condo cost $1,000,000 and you “MAY” be able to rent it for $3,800 to $4,000 a month. That’ll cover a little more than 1/2 your mortgage payment. But then you need to include property tax, HOA dues, and insurance.
Of all the communities in The OC, perhapses the worst place in the county to be a perspective landlord is Newport Beach.
Bill - I’ve noticed a few Lake Forest properties in the past couple days coming on to the market (obviously distressed) for at or below 2003 prices. These are only anecdotal examples, but things may be beginning to accelerate out there.
I would denote the growth in foreclosures as more exponential than parabolic but it doesn’t really matter: either way it is through the roof! Ain’t nothing but good news to all the fence sitters out there: let the speculators scream and moan as they are righteously foreclosed upon and evicted whereupon a more prudent buyer who can actually make his/her mortgage payments gets the keys.
well said shiny
The chart reminds me of the median house price back in the 2001-2006, the correct prediction for the foreclosure is that it is going to go up, up , and up, and will never go down in our lifetime.
Lots and lots of liar loans!!! Hey liars, you can’t lie your way out of this mess!