Housing demand up, but so are foreclosures, Matt says
May 6th, 2008, 6:00 pm · 20 Comments · posted by Mathew Padilla, Reporter
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May 6th, 2008 at 10:05 pm
That is an opinion piece, it’s in the op-ed section not the news section. But of course you already knew that.
May 6th, 2008 at 10:30 pm
Matt Padilla has been known as mouthpiece for Builders and Housing Industry in Orange County. Watch out for media spins and they are the reasons to get you into problems.
Lucky to have jobs and house price continues to nosedive. The worst has yet to come.
May 7th, 2008 at 1:42 am
I don’t know where Mr. Moulle-Berteaux gets the numbers that homes cost 19% of income in the 90s and 25% at the 2005 peak and 19% again today. The avg mortgage pmt in 2006 in the US was $1687, which by his math suggests an average US income of $80K (or $100K after taxes), which is clearly wrong.
He also almost entirely talks about new homes, ignoring existing ones and the effects of foreclosures. He also misses the effects of tightened underwriting requirements.
Maybe the WSJ can give a hedge fund a week an opportunity to talk their book in the editorial pages.
May 7th, 2008 at 3:32 am
Ut roh… It looks like sighburrdud will be disappointed with the foreclosure numbers for April. But, hey the bottom is in. LOL. The numbers will continue to speak for themselves. Too bad if the bottom hit him over the head, er basic econ, then he would see this is about to get worse. Great puff piece of hope though. I am sure it will make a few suckers believe.
May 7th, 2008 at 7:48 am
Hey Mat,
Interesting to see & hear you, but overall I sure prefer being able to scan print & skip ads to video.
I’ll bet more people posting comments here read or scanned Siburrhood’s long WSJ opinion post than actually got past the commercial to the end of your video post! Maybe at least a print summary next time?
May 7th, 2008 at 8:01 am
Hey Matt- You take that crackhead Steve Thomas as a reliable source?
May 7th, 2008 at 9:05 am
“Matt Padilla has been known as mouthpiece for Builders and Housing Industry in Orange County. Watch out for media spins and they are the reasons to get you into problems.” LOL!!! That is hilarious Carlos! First, that Matt Padilla is a mouthpiece for the industry with all hysterical headlines about the mortgage meltdown, he is HARDLY what anyone except crackpots would call “pro-housing”! And 2nd, blaming the MEDIA for people getting “into problems” is the worst kind of victim mentality….hey Carlos, a LOT of people are just plain STUPID! You can always tell who they are too…they blame others for their OWN ignorance and decision making. You can’t blame the media for that.
May 7th, 2008 at 9:23 am
“although house prices won’t stop falling entirely until inventories reach five months of supply sometime in 2009.”
How can the bottom have already occurred if prices continue to drop for a full year? Doesn’t make any sense at all.
May 7th, 2008 at 9:29 am
Buy Houses Now!
You said: “I don’t know where Mr. Moulle-Berteaux gets the numbers that homes cost 19% of income in the 90s and 25% at the 2005 peak and 19% again today. The avg mortgage pmt in 2006 in the US was $1687, which by his math suggests an average US income of $80K (or $100K after taxes), which is clearly wrong.”
You are correct…the AVERAGE income in America cannot afford the AVERAGE mortgage payment…of course, the average income numbers for Americans includes the 34% of the entire population that will NEVER be a homeowner…the perma-renter underclass! So, if there could be some way to determine the average income of the 66% of HOME OWNERS and withold the low income underclass HOME RENTERS, one would find that the average of the home owner is considerably higher than the overall average. Poor people don’t buy houses. The middle class and up generally buy…the poor rent. But the poor still have their income thrown in to any average calculation for some reason. I have posted this here MANY times but some people just don’t seem to get it: The average, median, middle, etc. income numbers include people who could NEVER afford a house: The Pizza delivery man is NOT a home owning candidate. Neither is the gas station attendant…or the mail room clerk at your company. But their incomes are in the calculation of average. Time to start thinking critically here folks…home owners make MORE money than the average.
May 7th, 2008 at 9:31 am
Liar Loan,
I believe they call that “Spin”! LOL!
May 7th, 2008 at 11:59 am
To Scott,
Sometimes you bears crack me up. When Steve’s data was showing rising inventory and slowing sales, that was fine. But as soon as his data shows an increase in escrows you attack him and me. Ha ha. You have never heard the tale of the boy who cried wolf? If you knock everyone and everything that shows an increase in the market eventually your criticism becomes meaningless.
As for the layoffs, I consider myself lucky to have a job. Newspapers are worse off than the mortgage industry, which is suffering a cyclical downturn. We are suffering cyclical and structural downturns. Each successive generation is less interested in a general interest newspaper. I hope our Web and other efforts continue to grab readers. Time will tell.
However, in addition to my work at the Register I have a special project in the works. You heard it hear first in the comments. I will be more forthcoming in June.
May 7th, 2008 at 12:55 pm
matt,
keep us informed about your special project.
there will always be people who attack you for your pov.
don’t let that to bother you.
May 7th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Matt,
Anyone that accuses you of being an industry mouthpiece hasn’t been reading for long. I’d say the negative articles probably outnumber the positive by at least 10 to 1. That doesn’t mean you’re biased towards bad news either, but that’s all there is to report these days.
May 8th, 2008 at 12:50 pm
II find it interesting that the folks on this blog debate the same thing day-in & day-out, minute-by-minute…Do you all think you’ve discovered something new just because you woke up this morning? I’ve been buying & selling Coastal OC properties since 1976 (mid-level SFR & Condo’s ). I’ve always stayed in the NB, CM, LB & AV areas. I’ve been thru many cycles like the one we’re in the midst of (although this one is unique and more protracted), it always takes numerous years to turn any real estate cycle.
What’s with this “Bulls & Bears” nonsense? This is not the Stock Market that turns on a whim (with Big-Block-Traders moving the markets)! If you really know what you’re doing, you’d relax and stop with the personal attacks as if you know something no one else has figure out (ego not facts). The real estate markets driving forces will take a long time to turn…and then, and only then, will we see a protracted recovery…NOT a rocket shot of some stock market “Bull or Bear” type-hype.
It’s simply about objective data and not quoting some agenda-riddle-hype-nonsense! When it turns, it’ll be a long time and then will flatten on the bottom like all real estate trends have done. Meanwhile daily in –put will be just that “Daily”…not worth much in the big picture!
May 10th, 2008 at 1:30 am
Matt, You do a great job. Ignore all these angry fools.