O.C. homes entering foreclosure hit record in early ‘08
April 22nd, 2008, 2:26 pm · 58 Comments · posted by Mathew Padilla, Reporter
The first quarter of 2008 had the wrong kind of records for Orange County’s housing market.
Banks recorded 7,082 notices of default in Q1, the highest in DataQuick’s files, which go back to 1992 for NODs. The total is up 168 percent from a year ago and 67 percent from Q4 2007. Banks typically file an NOD after a borrower has missed at least three monthly payments. The filing is the first stage of foreclosure.
In the first quarter, DataQuick said across California that an estimated 32 percent of homeowners getting an NOD avoided foreclosure by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 52 percent.
March’s total of 2,476 NODs in Orange County also is an all-time high, but than again so was the total in January, which was 2,352. During the 1990s, the peak month was March 1996 with 2,320 NODs. That quarter, Q1 1996, was also a peak with 6,422 NODs.
Note: DataQuick revised upward its total for February NODs to 2,254. It said it has fixed a technical glitch that caused it to underestimate the figure.
To read my previous post on O.C. foreclosures in March CLICK HERE.
And here is a table with NODs and foreclosures by month:
| Year | 2008 | 2007 | 2006 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month | Defaults | Forec. | Defaults | Forec. | Defaults | Forec. |
| January | 2,352 | 802 | 847 | 153 | 384 | 25 |
| February | 2,254 | 732 | 811 | 164 | 316 | 14 |
| March | 2,476 | 698 | 986 | 204 | 407 | 28 |
| April | 855 | 234 | 374 | 22 | ||
| May | 1,021 | 276 | 444 | 37 | ||
| June | 1,108 | 311 | 462 | 13 | ||
| July | 1,167 | 367 | 440 | 44 | ||
| August | 1,476 | 469 | 498 | 59 | ||
| September | 1,239 | 444 | 588 | 78 | ||
| October | 1,448 | 530 | 599 | 104 | ||
| November | 933 | 364 | 665 | 102 | ||
| December | 1,895 | 644 | 688 | 121 | ||
| TOTAL | 13,786 | 4,160 | 5,865 | 647 | ||
April 22nd, 2008 at 2:44 pm
These forward looking numbers suggest that the decline in home prices in orange county is just beginning.
April 22nd, 2008 at 3:00 pm
well appearantly this shouldn’t appear as a surprise since the increase from July of 2006 thru now has become very steady in increasingly high volumes.
April 22nd, 2008 at 3:41 pm
People have thrown in the towel in Santa Ana.
April 22nd, 2008 at 3:46 pm
Calif. home prices down 22.48%, nation’s worst
Ouch, but don’t worry, sigburfool said a couple months ago values were at a bottom, so as they continue to fall just go into major denial like thoughless and shockg and you’ll feel better.
April 22nd, 2008 at 3:47 pm
Plankton theory at work: So if the bottom of the market continues to fall (Santa Ana, Anaheim), will that ultimately result in a drag on the entire market a year from now? If the plankton theory is to be believed, then the answer is yes because entry level home owners who can no longer move up to the next level of homes creates a domino affect that reaches into the upper tier (homes in the $1 million range).
April 22nd, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Dam, smart people
April 22nd, 2008 at 4:37 pm
“So if the bottom of the market continues to fall (Santa Ana, Anaheim), will that ultimately result in a drag on the entire market a year from now?”
That false. Santa Ana is NOT a substitute for Irvine or Laguna Niguel or Coto de Caza. Places like Santa Ana, Anaheim and Lake Forest were bid up too high relative to their place in the pecking order. What is happening with values there is completely warranted. Like I’ve said before: we will see a divergence in the marketplace, a flight to quality if you please.
April 22nd, 2008 at 4:48 pm
So if the bottom wrung is torn out of the housing ladder, how do people move up?
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:17 pm
Thoughtful is the quintessential ostridge with it’s head in the sand. Moron.
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:29 pm
Great debate skills you have, Joseph. Now go wash your mouth out with soap.
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:40 pm
“Default notices — the first stage of foreclosure — were sent to owners of 110,000 California homes from January to March, about 1% of the homes in the state, according to La Jolla-based DataQuick Information Systems. Default notices were up 143% from the same quarter a year ago.” Latimes
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:42 pm
“The number of California homes lost to foreclosure in the first quarter surged 327% from year-ago levels — reaching an average of more than 500 foreclosures per day — DataQuick said in a report,”
Which one is correct? 143%, or 327%
April 22nd, 2008 at 5:50 pm
Notices of Default
houses and condos
County/Region 2007Q1 2008Q1 Yr/Yr%
Los Angeles 8,843 20,339 130.0%
Orange 2 ,644 7,082 167.9%
San Diego 3,931 8,975 128.3%
Riverside 5,750 15,022 161.3%
San Bernardino 4,357 11,149 155.9%
Ventura 965 2,176 125.5%
Imperial 258 566 119.4%
SoCal 26,748 65,309 144.2%
San Francisco 216 420 94.4%
Alameda 1,578 3,194 102.4%
Contra Costa 1,969 4,718 139.6%
Santa Clara 1,058 3,074 190.5%
San Mateo 382 911 138.5%
Marin 118 314 166.1%
Solano 914 2,091 128.8%
Sonoma 407 1,392 242.0%
Napa 88 284 222.7%
Bay Area 6,730 16,398 143.7%
Statewide 46,760 113,676 143.1%
April 22nd, 2008 at 6:18 pm
How can anyone in their right mind believe that the foreclosure problem will only affect depressed areas? As someone above astutely noted…morons. And to think this party is just getting started. Grim.
April 22nd, 2008 at 6:18 pm
How does this square with yesterday’s report:
“Growth slows in O.C. distressed homes for sale”…
April 22nd, 2008 at 6:48 pm
LOL first the national stats tanked. But California is different
Then California tanked. But SoCal is different.
Then SoCal tanked. But OC is different.
Then OC tanked. But now Coto de Caza is different.
Soon it will be “that was the bubble part of Coto de Caza–my street is different”.
Anyway it’s a good thing that Steve Thomas has tipped us that the bottom is here.
April 22nd, 2008 at 6:52 pm
And it’s IDIOTIC to think that areas with 1 foreclosure per thousand are affected ANYWHERE NEAR areas with 10 foreclosures per thousand. This is common sense, except to your feeble minds, Yogi and Joseph.
April 22nd, 2008 at 6:53 pm
It’s going to be great seeing all the big mouths shut over the summer.
April 22nd, 2008 at 6:55 pm
Actually, California tanked first. But don’t let FACTS get in the way of a stupid comment.
April 22nd, 2008 at 7:07 pm
But don’t let FACTS get in the way of a stupid comment.
LOL you certainly never do.
April 22nd, 2008 at 7:12 pm
Come on Thoughtless … It’s happening right here in Orange County. The quicker you accept it, the happier you’ll be.
April 22nd, 2008 at 7:22 pm
When will everyone realize that OC is no more then a middle class area with middle class incomes that can not afford more then roughly a 300-450k loan. Given that, expect median home prices to fall to 400k, some homes, condos much lower and some areas higher. I dont really understand why this is such a problem for many?? Maybe someone can explain this to me???????????
April 22nd, 2008 at 7:28 pm
Hey Buy Houses Now!, I left you a challenge in Padilla’s “growth slows” thread. Go ahead, show us your answer. You WON’T…..because you CAN’T! You can only parrot empty anecdotes. Put up…..or even better, shut up!
April 22nd, 2008 at 8:26 pm
Hey thoughtless they’re hiring at Remedy for 10 bucks an hour. LOL.
April 22nd, 2008 at 8:27 pm
I answered your feeble cry for attention. I see you’re reduced to crankish “prove me wrong, but if you do, I won’t admit it” challenges. I need to stop feeding the t r o ll.
April 22nd, 2008 at 8:55 pm
Hey Thoughtless: time to punch out.
p.s. Come summer time, your recent “January 2008 = Bottom” proclamation will rank right up there with Gary Watts’ infamous “15% appreciation is in the bag” and “inverted year” calls. Talk about feable minds. What a couple imbeciles. LOL!!!
April 22nd, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Why has NO one, not even Mathew remarked about the GLARING fact that the number of foreclosures have gone DOWN each month this year? ( See left side of the chart above - you know THE ONE THAT SAYS 2008! ) Everybody is saying UP! UP! UP! And yet the REAL numbers have been going down, month after month.
April 22nd, 2008 at 11:41 pm
I offered to bet $25K to one of the permabulls in Feb that this was the bottom. They clammed up then, yet they still post now.
I think Truthiness is just frustrated her flip went south and now she’s locked out. Either way, it’s fun watching somebody else who’s that venomous self destruct.
One of the banner ads at the OCR is for a mental health resource that proclaims “do you know someone who’s suffering through chronic mental illness?”
Well, not personally, but she posts here.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:55 am
“It’s going to be great seeing all the big mouths shut over the summer.”
I actually think the same about you (Thoughtless) and the rest of the permabulls–but I’m sure you’ll come up with more excuses as to why we’re at the bottom over and over again just like that broken record Lawrence Yun over at the NAR. Yet time and time again you will be wrong.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:58 am
So… Coto is now the immune city of OC for foreclosures. That’s funny, really funny, because one went back to the back today for 25% less than what was owed to the bank. That is the second home in the last week to go back to the bank for 25% less than what was owed. These would be some “deals” at 2002 prices, if you have the cash.
Sighburrdood Says:
April 22nd, 2008 at 10:39 pm
Why has NO one, not even Mathew (spell check is your friend) remarked about the GLARING fact that the number of foreclosures have gone DOWN each month this year? ( See left side of the chart above - you know THE ONE THAT SAYS 2008! ) Everybody is saying UP! UP! UP! And yet the REAL numbers have been going down, month after month.
This is because in January they were up from December, or up in this year 2008. In February there were 3 less business days than January, so they were up that month too on a per day basis. So, March was the only month they were down, and anyone who understands the basics of trends, including Matthew, know that one month doesn’t make a trend. Also, if you actually read what Matthew reported, he was reporting on the NODs, which were up this month.
Now, you can cheer that one month all you want, but last month there were 1570 notice of trustee sales filed, that is up 76% from the previous month. That is more than how many resale homes sold last month. Then you could look at how many foreclosures have happened so far in April, and by the per day basis number April will have over 800 foreclosures, which is up from March. Then you could calculate the NOD to foreclosure ratio by taking the last six months of foreclosures and dividing it by the six months of NODs before that, and you would get a 55% ratio. Six months ago this ratio was at 47%, but it has gone up MONTH, after MONTH to the current 55%. Take that 55% to the last six months of NODS and you get well over 6000 foreclosures in the next six months. Add what foreclosures we have had this year to that, figure the monthly average, and you get over 11,000 foreclosures for 2008.
Oh… and your housing stock number of over 1mil is way off. You see, that is housing units, and not everyone owns the individual unit. You could take the 60% owner occupied number of around 600k, or you could take the OC tax collector data of around 800k property tax bills, and either way you would get a more accurate calculation. You might want to add last year’s foreclosures plus my prediction, which is and has been underestimated and way more accurate than Steve “Quantum Economics” Thomas, and like Gary Watts you will need to move the decimal point over two spots there. I look forward to hearing next month’s excuse, and the next, and the next, and the next.
April 23rd, 2008 at 1:14 am
Thoughtful,
You are such an awful human being. Your comments like “Santa Ana is NOT a substitute for Irvine or Laguna Niguel or Coto de Caza” just show the kind of person you are.
We all know you lost a bunch of money and now you need to put down a “class” of people to make yourself feel better. Just so you know, you and your family will NEVER be able to afford a home in North Santa Ana. And no, I don’t live in SA. I’m just not as ignorant as you.
For the record, North Orange County has a large portion of the population. If those people stop buying goods and services it punishes the entire County from tax rolls to private businesses.
Stop collecting unemployment insurance and get a job.
April 23rd, 2008 at 5:17 am
Why has NO one, not even Mathew remarked about the GLARING fact that the number of foreclosures have gone DOWN each month this year?
Because it’s only three months and it’s likely to catch up. If you had celebrated the decline in NODs in Nov you would have been disappointed by Dec.
Still, it would be interesting to find out if it reflects slower F/C processing or increased loan mod activity by banks.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:06 am
Thoughtful,
Since when is Lake Forest a lower end “Depressed area” like a lot of Anaheim or Santa Ana? El Toro road next to the 5 has some lower-end homes but the rest of Lake Forest looks like Mission Viejo or BETTER….the Lake area, Foothill Ranch and Portola Hills are all in Lake Forest don’t forget and there are zero low end homes in those places….the problems there are like anywhere else…some people overreached and now are walking away or they were in some Real Estate or construction related field and lost their incomes….we have a full blown recession and those Foreclosure numbers will be like that everywhere….or worse!
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:09 am
Larry P, I did not dream that up, they are in top 5 (or so) distressed cities list. I used to live in Lake Forest years ago, so I know it well. There ARE some good parts, but there are also some slummy parts.
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:12 am
I don’t get the Steve Thomas credentials debate.
“Broker
Our broker has over a decade of dedicated Real Estate experience. As a quantum economics major, he closely monitors market trends and is a key source for market information.”
“Quantum economics (a.k.a. quantum macroeconomics, a.k.a. the theory of money emissions) is a branch of monetary economics developed by French economist Bernard Schmitt (1929), former Professor at the University of Burgundy, in Dijon, France, and at the University of Fribourg, Switzerland.”
April 23rd, 2008 at 8:54 am
Thoughtful,
The less than two square mile area bracketing Muirlands and Rockfield road along the 5 from around El Toro Road would make citizens of say, LA laugh out loud to hear it described as “Slummy”! That area is Lower end middle class, sure! It’s got some 70’s era HUD apartments along El Toro that are unsightly but “Slummy”? Er…no. That’s kind of like Dina yesterday describing Anaheim and Santa Ana as having “a lot of shootings”…sure Dina, for a city of 50,000 they have “a lot of shootings” but for cities each approaching 400,000….um, no! Exaggeration. Same with Lake Forest….NOT depressed or slummy. I drive up El Toro road often on the way to the office and eat lunch in that new shopping center, “The Arbor”. I grew up in a “slummy” part of Garden Grove so I know what the OC version of “slummy” looks like and that area of Lake Forest ain’t it!
I would bet the higher level of foreclosures there is because of a larger share of subprime loans than most of South OC. Lake Forest IS along with a large chunk of Mission Viejo definitely the “Bargain” area of South County since a portion of it was developed in the late 70’s and while I don’t have any facts to back this up, likely was a place where lower middle class “Strivers” from the Central and northern parts of the county overreached on their mortgages to have a home in a “nicer” area in South County than the OC neighborhoods they were leaving…better schools and all of that. Just a guess but that makes some sense to me at least.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:38 am
Makes sense to me too. Sorry for the word slummy. It’s more tired than anything. I think Lake Forest will see a renaissance with the Great Park going in one day. It has undeniably good geography. On a side note: I really like that woodsy area (I can’t remember the name of it, the one with the eucalyptus trees). I also am impressed with the redevelopment of El Toro Road. Very nicely done, IMHO.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:42 am
That’s some exaggeration on prices since August. Prices were considerably off the peak at that time. Oh well, facts are not relevent here.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:51 am
That area of Lake Forest is called ‘The Woods’.
How much depreciation do you want to concede since Aug? That’s how much the advice cost buyers.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:52 am
Buy Houses Now!-
I don’t think banks are intentionally slowing foreclosures to make their numbers seem better than they are. (That makes no sense to me. A loan in default is a loan in default.) The foreclosure process is slow enough as it is, and the longer it takes to complete, the higher the costs (lawyers fees, court costs, property deterioration, lost interest income, etc.).
Most of the servicers have adjusted their Loss Mitigation strategies to try to keep borrowers in their homes. This includes Forebearance Plans, Repayment Plans, and Modifications. Each of these options takes a little time to accomplish which would result in two possible outcomes: 1) Either the borrower eventually avoids foreclosure through one of these methods, or 2) One of the above workouts is attempted and failed, and the foreclosure proceeds as normal, but was delayed due to the attempted workout.
I believe both of these scenarios have been occurring since about September after the “Housing Crisis” really caught the attention of everybody. The thing to remember is it took several months for this strategy shift to start having an impact and that’s why we’re just now noticing the results of less foreclosures happening.
February only had one less business day than January, not three days less like graphix said. So on a per day basis, February had slightly less foreclosure activity than January, and March has had significantly less than February and January.
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:44 am
It is a lot cheaper, in the short run, for banks to float delinquent borrowers than to writedown loan losses. They would much rather smooth those out over time than have their capital ratios jeopardized. Legally, they’re not supposed to do that, but…
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:23 am
It’s an interesting theory that might be true. I don’t know at what stage the banks have to write the loans down to market. It seems like they’d have to jack up their loan loss reserves regardless of whether the foreclosure was on hold or not.
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:31 am
So… what university did Steve Thomas receive his degree in “Quantum Economics” from? University of Burgundy?
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:00 pm
hey signburrdood, banks don’t have the manpower to foreclose on everybody. Their way behind on all their paperwork. I know two families that haven’t made a payment in 9 to 10 months and are still in their houses.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:16 pm
what a pathetic tool thoughtless is: as i have said before, his knee-jerk reaction to the constant drumbeat of grim news about this market is to say it is just Santa Ana, afterall we all know who lives there.
under thoughtless’ “logic,” the mexicans never had a right to unsustainable appreciation so it is justice that housing prices are falling in Santa Ana. But that same unsustainability applies to the white neighborhoods as well. Of course, thoughtless can’t recognize that, he has some resets looming and needs some future bagholders to cover for him. I petition that thoughtless be banned for further postings of his slime here and on Lansner’s blog.
April 23rd, 2008 at 12:44 pm
shiny, you and your jumping to conclusions is a little overboard. As I told David Poggi yesterday: I sleep next to a full-blooded hispanic. What makes you think you know my ethnicity? The Santa Ana comments are not racist, they are based on economic fact, nothing more. Santa Ana has its very own paralell economy. Until recently, I didn’t even know how much worse the crime rate is there. Take a look at the Megan’s Law website, and you will come away astonished.
April 23rd, 2008 at 9:15 pm
Wow, all this name calling really adds to the debate.
April 23rd, 2008 at 10:48 pm
Let’s all hold hands and sing “We are the World”
I think a lot of people are bored (unemployed) and have nothing better to do than insult each other.
“We are the World…”
Join in anytime!
April 23rd, 2008 at 11:16 pm
Ut roh… for all the permabulls. April is really starting to look worse than March for the foreclosure numbers. In the first 13 business days of March there were 430 foreclosures, and in the first 13 days of April there have been 580. The NTSs are up as well, and they were up big last month.
It looks like we will be hearing more and more bottom calling.
April 24th, 2008 at 1:04 am
The worst has yet to come to Orange County yet. The foreclosure problem in Orange County is not nearly as severe as in the Riverside and San Bernadino, where it verges on epidemic in some communities.
With home values dropping in most of Orange County, it’s become harder for strapped homeowners to sell their homes for enough to pay off their loans, and a greater portion of them ultimately will be foreclosed upon.
That means the record-high number of defaulting homeowners is almost sure to result in an unprecedented tide of foreclosures later this year.
There’s still plenty of pain ahead for California and Orange County’s housing market as more homeowners faced the threat of foreclosure. Of course, with the market going down you can’t sell anything.
Protect yourself and get out while you can. Foreclosure is the Only Best Option.
April 24th, 2008 at 7:24 am
Shhhhh, what’s that rumbling sound? Hmmm, sounds like the oncoming pitter-pat of first time buyers and lots of new escrows opening up.
According to the chart at the top of this thread, and contrary to the headline, the number of ACTUAL houses foreclosed has declined for each of the first 3 months of this year.
The tide has turned. The decline has ground to a halt, in Orange County, at least. The bottom is HERE.
April 24th, 2008 at 8:57 pm
grapefix had this to ask: “So… what university did Steve Thomas receive his degree in “Quantum Economics” from? University of Burgundy?”
Definitely not the same Institute of higher learning you graduated from - tell us again - was it Absorbine Jr., or Carls Jr.?
April 25th, 2008 at 1:31 am
Awe… how cute, sighburrdud tries to be snarky. I asked before, and I will ask again, where did Steve Thomas get his degree? Does he have a degree?
Yeah… dud, the bottom is here. LOL, you need to learn to use a calculator, and take the most basic and remedial class on statistics. Then you could actually figure out that foreclosures lag NODs by 6 months, and you could see the continued increase in NTSs, and then you would know that the bottom is no where near here. When there are over 1000 foreclosures in a month this year, then I will give you a lesson from the school of hard knocks. I never knew there was a degree in ignorance, but obviously that was your major.
April 25th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
Snarl! Ok. Home buyers are getting the message that Foreclosures are abundant. Now if only they would snatch them all up so we can move on . . . . . Oh, and don’t forget to educate yourself if you DO plan to get involved in a bank-owned purchase. It is the Wild Wild West out there!